2007 New Mexico Bowl ($750,000 payout)
Nevada Wolfpack 6-6 vs. New Mexico Lobos 8-4
Quick, one of these teams is in the Mountain West and one is in the WAC. Which one is which? You have no idea at all do you? I didn't either until I started researching this game. The answer is Nevada in the WAC, New Mexico in Mountain West. Aren't there more mountains Nevada? But I guess Reno is further west than Albuquerque so...........whatever. They might as well just combine both conferences, it really doesn't matter.
There's a football game going on here too. And it features my favorite college quarterback in the country you've never heard of, WAC (or is it Mountain West...) freshman of the year Nevada's Colin Kaepernick (that's pronounced Kay-per-nick so you can jump on the bandwagon with me before your boys do).
He's the WAC (not whack) version of Vince Young. He's 6-6, mobile and might even have a stronger arm than Vince. He's not better than Vince, just an incredibly talented freshman who stepped in for starter Nick Granziano when he got knocked out for the year with a foot injury.
If you watch ESPN2 you might remember Kaepernick from his first start against Boise State, where I first developed my man crush on him. Nevada was completely over matched, had no business being in that game and all Kaepernick did was run for 177 yards and 2 scores on a mere 14 carries and added another 243 and 2 scores passing. Nevada lost 67-69 in 4 overtimes.
Kaepernick will be the key to this home game for New Mexico, a team that is the opposite of the Wolfpack. New Mexico is above average on defense and below average on offense. They don't do anything great, they don't do anything terribly. Nevada is an above average offensive team (11th in rushing, but not in the traditonal up the gut in your face style, alot of it is Kaepernick on broken pass plays) and below average on defense. They don't do anything terrible and they don't do anyting great.
So if we look at this like a division problem, all factors would cancel each other out, and we need to look towards the next questions. Special teams, key situations, size/speed, coaching and intangibles. New Mexico has some of the best special teams in the nation and are basically playing a home game, but that could be negated by Kaepernick's legs on 3rd downs and the overall inconsistency of the Lobos. That inconsistency is a reflection of coach Rocky Long who did I mention has never won a bowl game (0-5).
UNDER THE RADAR:
Nevada WR Mike McCoy is the 3rd (or sometimes 4th) option in the Wolfpack attack, but should be open deep at least once. He's got nice speed and seems to find ways to get open. Think WAC (maybe whack as well) version of a Tim Dwight and Wes Welker lovechild. Pencil him in for 3or4 catches 85 yards and a key score in the 4th quarter.
New Mexico QB Donovan Porterie has been an effective come from behind signal caller himself. He's quietly amassed 2652 yards and 13 scores to 8 ints. Look for him to have a better game potentially than his star running back Rodney Ferguson (1177 yards and 13 scores) as Nevada should be prepared to scheme against Ferguson. The Lobos have great pass protection too, so pencil Porterie in for around 300 yards and 2 scores.
PREDICTION:
Nevada 37, New Mexico 34
MVP:
How can i go against my boy? I can't, this will be a breakout game for Colin Kaepernick as he shuts up the home crowd in a late thriller. Think 250 through the air with 2 tds (he tends to throw a around 50% completions with lots of deep balls so don't be surprised if you see 16-34) and another buck thirty five (that's 135 yards) and a score or two on the ground. KAP! KAP! KAP!
Friday, December 21, 2007
TEAM PROFILE: New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico Lobos 8-4
Key Players:
WR- Marcus Smith: explosive, 355 bench, good KR too, improved routes and hands
6-2, 214 SR (Cal)- 1st MWest 07’, HM MWest 06’
OT- Devin Clark: great pass blocker, 405 bench, physical
6-4, 312 SR (Arz)- 1st MWest 07’
RB- Rodney Ferguson: punishing, delivers the blow, improved speed, born in Flint,Mich
6-0, 229 JR (NMex)- 1st MWest 07’, 1st MWest 06’
CB- DeAndre Wright: good KR, great cover man, 315 bench, best cover man in MWest
5-11, 193 JR (Md)- 1st MWest 07’, 2nd MWest 06’
DE- Tyler Donaldson: 1 of quickest DL in MWest, can play multiple postions on line
6-4, 226 SR (Ga)- 1st MWest 07’, 2nd MWest 06’
C- Vince Natali: understudy of Minn Viking Ryan Cook, 400 bench, qb of o-line
6-2, 308 SR (Ill)- 1st MWest 07’
K- John Sullivan: came back from torn ACL in plant leg, very determined, great will
5-10, 152 SR (Cal)- 3rd ALL AMERICAN 07’, 1st MWest 07’
DE- Michael Tuhoy: high motor, mean streak, 1 of the best pass rushers in NM history
6-2, 250 SR (Cal)- 2nd MWest 07’, MWest
CB- Glover Quin: sure tackler who likes to hit, 335 bench, good cover man
6-0, 203 JR (Miss)- HM MWest 07’
SS- O.J. Swift: hardest hitter on team, flys around the field, great in run support
5-9, 196 SR (Fla)- HM MWest 07’
P- Jordan Scott: eliminates returns with his placement punting
6-0, 195 SR (Ohio)- HM MWest 07’
Watch Out For:
QB- Donovan Porterie: smooth, quick delivery pocket passer, calm, 7-2 in start2finish games
6-3, 206 SO (Tex)
Team Info:
Passing Off: 222.2 yrds/g, 59th in NCAA
-don’t throw for too many TDs
-get great pass protection
-only have 2 real targets
Rushing Off: 136.9 yrds/g, 79th in NCAA
-much better rushing team than their rank indicates
-very physical
-if they have a lead in the 4th qtr, they will wear you out
Passing Def: 202.4 yrds/g, 23rd in NCAA
-lock down corners take away deep balls
-great pass rush from multiple angles
-hard hitters as well
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Rushing Def: 129.2 yrds/g, 34th in NCAA
-senior LBs must play big
-good support from Swift in secondary
KEY TO GAME
Special Teams:
Kicking- A+
Punting- A
Return Game- B+
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conv- 73/200 (36%) vs. 64/185 (35%)
Penalties- 82 for 653 (54.4per) vs. 69 for 575 (47.9per)
Turnovers- 23 vs. 24 (+1)
TOP- 30:07 vs. 29:53
Head Coach: Rocky Long, 10th season- 60-60, 0-5 Bowls
-former New Mexico QB and safety
-schools all-time winingest coach, although the definition of average
-teams just don’t seem prepared for bowls, although they played 3 PAC10 teams from 97-03, lost to San Jose St last year, navy year before
*how this team will perform is a giant question mark
*great pass protection
*defense takes advantage of speed and quickness with multiple stunts
*should have great special teams advantage
*2 loses by 65 pts combines in last 5 games (Utah and TCU)
Key Players:
WR- Marcus Smith: explosive, 355 bench, good KR too, improved routes and hands
6-2, 214 SR (Cal)- 1st MWest 07’, HM MWest 06’
OT- Devin Clark: great pass blocker, 405 bench, physical
6-4, 312 SR (Arz)- 1st MWest 07’
RB- Rodney Ferguson: punishing, delivers the blow, improved speed, born in Flint,Mich
6-0, 229 JR (NMex)- 1st MWest 07’, 1st MWest 06’
CB- DeAndre Wright: good KR, great cover man, 315 bench, best cover man in MWest
5-11, 193 JR (Md)- 1st MWest 07’, 2nd MWest 06’
DE- Tyler Donaldson: 1 of quickest DL in MWest, can play multiple postions on line
6-4, 226 SR (Ga)- 1st MWest 07’, 2nd MWest 06’
C- Vince Natali: understudy of Minn Viking Ryan Cook, 400 bench, qb of o-line
6-2, 308 SR (Ill)- 1st MWest 07’
K- John Sullivan: came back from torn ACL in plant leg, very determined, great will
5-10, 152 SR (Cal)- 3rd ALL AMERICAN 07’, 1st MWest 07’
DE- Michael Tuhoy: high motor, mean streak, 1 of the best pass rushers in NM history
6-2, 250 SR (Cal)- 2nd MWest 07’, MWest
CB- Glover Quin: sure tackler who likes to hit, 335 bench, good cover man
6-0, 203 JR (Miss)- HM MWest 07’
SS- O.J. Swift: hardest hitter on team, flys around the field, great in run support
5-9, 196 SR (Fla)- HM MWest 07’
P- Jordan Scott: eliminates returns with his placement punting
6-0, 195 SR (Ohio)- HM MWest 07’
Watch Out For:
QB- Donovan Porterie: smooth, quick delivery pocket passer, calm, 7-2 in start2finish games
6-3, 206 SO (Tex)
Team Info:
Passing Off: 222.2 yrds/g, 59th in NCAA
-don’t throw for too many TDs
-get great pass protection
-only have 2 real targets
Rushing Off: 136.9 yrds/g, 79th in NCAA
-much better rushing team than their rank indicates
-very physical
-if they have a lead in the 4th qtr, they will wear you out
Passing Def: 202.4 yrds/g, 23rd in NCAA
-lock down corners take away deep balls
-great pass rush from multiple angles
-hard hitters as well
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Rushing Def: 129.2 yrds/g, 34th in NCAA
-senior LBs must play big
-good support from Swift in secondary
KEY TO GAME
Special Teams:
Kicking- A+
Punting- A
Return Game- B+
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conv- 73/200 (36%) vs. 64/185 (35%)
Penalties- 82 for 653 (54.4per) vs. 69 for 575 (47.9per)
Turnovers- 23 vs. 24 (+1)
TOP- 30:07 vs. 29:53
Head Coach: Rocky Long, 10th season- 60-60, 0-5 Bowls
-former New Mexico QB and safety
-schools all-time winingest coach, although the definition of average
-teams just don’t seem prepared for bowls, although they played 3 PAC10 teams from 97-03, lost to San Jose St last year, navy year before
*how this team will perform is a giant question mark
*great pass protection
*defense takes advantage of speed and quickness with multiple stunts
*should have great special teams advantage
*2 loses by 65 pts combines in last 5 games (Utah and TCU)
TEAM PROFILE: Nevada Wolfpack
Nevada Wolfpack 6-6
Key Players:
QB- Colin Kaepernick: 1st start 67-69 loss vs. Boise St, great skill set, big arm, fast, size
6-6, 215 FR (Cal)- Frosh of Year WAC 07’
RB- Luke Lippincott: emerged late in 06, former safety, quick feet, 1 cut runner
6-2, 215 JR (Cal)- 1st WAC 07’
C- Dominic Green: versatile, started at tackle, guard and center in career
6-3, 295 JR (Cal)- 1st WAC 07’
DE/LB- Erza Butler: probably was better last year, still great intensity and leader, 3ints
6-2, 248 SR (Cal)- 2nd WAC 07’, 1st WAC 06’
TE- Adam Bishop: good hands, big target, solid blocker, key on sp teams as well
6-4, 245 SR (Cal)- 2nd WAC 07’
DT- Matt Hines: very stable, good run stopper
6-1, 285 SR (Cal)- 2nd WAC 07’, 2nd WAC 06’
WR- Marko Mitchell: very athletic, came on last 2 months, snub from all WAC
6-4, 200 JR (Ala)
WR- Kyle Sammons: JUCO transfer in 05’, 199yrds 2tds in last game vs. LaTech
5-11, 195 SR (Cal)
OG- Greg Hall: very strong, solid
6-3, 290 JR (Arz)
OG- Charles Manu: preseason all WAC, recovering from ankle surgery
6-5, 300 SR (Nev)
OLB- Jerome Johnson: hardest hitter on team, 66tack, 5 for loss
6-1, 235 JR (Cal)
OLB- Nick Fuhr: led team in sacks, good pass rusher, 425 bench in high school
6-3, 245 SR (Alaska)
K- Brett Jaekle: 16-21 76.2%, 4-6 from 40-49yrds, 50 long
6-4, 210 JR (Nev)
Watch Out For:
WR- Mike McCoy: big play receiver, will get open at least once deep
6-0, 190 JR (Cal)
Team Info:
Passing Off: 263.1 yrds/g, 36th in NCAA
-Kaepernick’s arm strength lets receivers tap into big play ability
-Mitchell is very underrated
-Kaepernick makes up for not so outstanding pass protection
Rushing Off: 226.8 yrds/g, 11th in NCAA
-Lippincott has nose for the end zone
-strength is up the middle, great guards and center
-Kaepernick makes lots of great plays out of broken ones
BIGGEST STRENGTH
KEY TO GAME
Passing Def: 231.3 yrds/g, 67th in NCAA
-no real playmakers in secondary
-don’t force too many picks
-sets up their lack of success in run def
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Rush Def: 172.3 yrds/g, 76th in NCAA
-too many big plays, guys overpursuing
-not enough guys getting into the backfield initially
Special Teams:
Kicking- A
Punting- C
Return Game- C-
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conv- 70/169 (41%) vs. 71/179 (40%)
Penalties- 85 for 673yrds (56.1per) vs. 70 for 566yrds (47.2per)
Turnovers- 20 vs. 16 (-4)
TOP- 31:08 vs. 28:47
Head Coach: Chris Ault, 22nd season (3rd since 04)- 177-73-1, 2-2 bowls
-effective at making halftime adjustments, 25 career 2nd half comeback wins
-Athletic director until 04’
-one of 3 active coaches in the College Football Hall of Fame
*Nevada is 3-3 in bowl games, 2-3 since 92, 1-1 since 05’
*bowl games always close, 3 games by 1pt, 2 by 3 since 92’
*5 of 6 losses (except Nebraska week1) by total of 20pts
Key Players:
QB- Colin Kaepernick: 1st start 67-69 loss vs. Boise St, great skill set, big arm, fast, size
6-6, 215 FR (Cal)- Frosh of Year WAC 07’
RB- Luke Lippincott: emerged late in 06, former safety, quick feet, 1 cut runner
6-2, 215 JR (Cal)- 1st WAC 07’
C- Dominic Green: versatile, started at tackle, guard and center in career
6-3, 295 JR (Cal)- 1st WAC 07’
DE/LB- Erza Butler: probably was better last year, still great intensity and leader, 3ints
6-2, 248 SR (Cal)- 2nd WAC 07’, 1st WAC 06’
TE- Adam Bishop: good hands, big target, solid blocker, key on sp teams as well
6-4, 245 SR (Cal)- 2nd WAC 07’
DT- Matt Hines: very stable, good run stopper
6-1, 285 SR (Cal)- 2nd WAC 07’, 2nd WAC 06’
WR- Marko Mitchell: very athletic, came on last 2 months, snub from all WAC
6-4, 200 JR (Ala)
WR- Kyle Sammons: JUCO transfer in 05’, 199yrds 2tds in last game vs. LaTech
5-11, 195 SR (Cal)
OG- Greg Hall: very strong, solid
6-3, 290 JR (Arz)
OG- Charles Manu: preseason all WAC, recovering from ankle surgery
6-5, 300 SR (Nev)
OLB- Jerome Johnson: hardest hitter on team, 66tack, 5 for loss
6-1, 235 JR (Cal)
OLB- Nick Fuhr: led team in sacks, good pass rusher, 425 bench in high school
6-3, 245 SR (Alaska)
K- Brett Jaekle: 16-21 76.2%, 4-6 from 40-49yrds, 50 long
6-4, 210 JR (Nev)
Watch Out For:
WR- Mike McCoy: big play receiver, will get open at least once deep
6-0, 190 JR (Cal)
Team Info:
Passing Off: 263.1 yrds/g, 36th in NCAA
-Kaepernick’s arm strength lets receivers tap into big play ability
-Mitchell is very underrated
-Kaepernick makes up for not so outstanding pass protection
Rushing Off: 226.8 yrds/g, 11th in NCAA
-Lippincott has nose for the end zone
-strength is up the middle, great guards and center
-Kaepernick makes lots of great plays out of broken ones
BIGGEST STRENGTH
KEY TO GAME
Passing Def: 231.3 yrds/g, 67th in NCAA
-no real playmakers in secondary
-don’t force too many picks
-sets up their lack of success in run def
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Rush Def: 172.3 yrds/g, 76th in NCAA
-too many big plays, guys overpursuing
-not enough guys getting into the backfield initially
Special Teams:
Kicking- A
Punting- C
Return Game- C-
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conv- 70/169 (41%) vs. 71/179 (40%)
Penalties- 85 for 673yrds (56.1per) vs. 70 for 566yrds (47.2per)
Turnovers- 20 vs. 16 (-4)
TOP- 31:08 vs. 28:47
Head Coach: Chris Ault, 22nd season (3rd since 04)- 177-73-1, 2-2 bowls
-effective at making halftime adjustments, 25 career 2nd half comeback wins
-Athletic director until 04’
-one of 3 active coaches in the College Football Hall of Fame
*Nevada is 3-3 in bowl games, 2-3 since 92, 1-1 since 05’
*bowl games always close, 3 games by 1pt, 2 by 3 since 92’
*5 of 6 losses (except Nebraska week1) by total of 20pts
2007 New Mexico Bowl Preview
2007 New Mexico Bowl
Nevada Wolfpack vs. New Mexico Lobos
6-6 8-4
@ #20 Nebraska, L 10-52 @UTEP, L 6-10
@ Northwestern, L 31-36 New Mexico State, W 44-34
Nicholls State, W 52-17 @ Arizona, W 29-27
UNLV, W 27-20 Sacramento State, W 58-0
Fresno State, L 41-49 Brigham Young, L 24-31
@Boise State, L 67-69 @ Wyoming, W 20-3
@Utah State, W 31-28 @ San Diego St., W 20-17
Idaho, W 37-21 Air Force, W 34-31
@New Mexico State, W 40-38 @ TCU, L 0-37
#13 Hawaii, L 26-28 Colorado State, W 26-23
@San Jose State, L 26-28 @ Utah, L 10-38
Louisiana Tech, W 49-10 UNLV W, 27-6
Nevada Rushing vs. New Mexico Rush Def: 3
Adv- Nevada
Nevada Passing vs. New Mexico Pass Def: 3
Adv- Nevada
New Mexico Rushing vs. Nevada Rush Def: 4
Adv- New Mexico
New Mexico Passing vs. Nevada Pass Def: 5
Adv-New Mexico
Nevada Special Teams: 2
New Mexico Special Teams: 5
3rd Down Conv- Nevada, 3
Penalties- New Mexico, 1
Turnovers- Nevada, 3
TOP- Nevada, 1
Coaching- Nevada, 2
Intangibles- Nevada, 3
Size- New Mexico, 2
Speed- Nevada, 3
TOTALS
Nevada- 23
New Mexico- 16
Nevada Wolfpack vs. New Mexico Lobos
6-6 8-4
@ #20 Nebraska, L 10-52 @UTEP, L 6-10
@ Northwestern, L 31-36 New Mexico State, W 44-34
Nicholls State, W 52-17 @ Arizona, W 29-27
UNLV, W 27-20 Sacramento State, W 58-0
Fresno State, L 41-49 Brigham Young, L 24-31
@Boise State, L 67-69 @ Wyoming, W 20-3
@Utah State, W 31-28 @ San Diego St., W 20-17
Idaho, W 37-21 Air Force, W 34-31
@New Mexico State, W 40-38 @ TCU, L 0-37
#13 Hawaii, L 26-28 Colorado State, W 26-23
@San Jose State, L 26-28 @ Utah, L 10-38
Louisiana Tech, W 49-10 UNLV W, 27-6
Nevada Rushing vs. New Mexico Rush Def: 3
Adv- Nevada
Nevada Passing vs. New Mexico Pass Def: 3
Adv- Nevada
New Mexico Rushing vs. Nevada Rush Def: 4
Adv- New Mexico
New Mexico Passing vs. Nevada Pass Def: 5
Adv-New Mexico
Nevada Special Teams: 2
New Mexico Special Teams: 5
3rd Down Conv- Nevada, 3
Penalties- New Mexico, 1
Turnovers- Nevada, 3
TOP- Nevada, 1
Coaching- Nevada, 2
Intangibles- Nevada, 3
Size- New Mexico, 2
Speed- Nevada, 3
TOTALS
Nevada- 23
New Mexico- 16
Bower's Last Stand
2007 Papajohns.com Bowl ( $300,000 payout)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. #19 Cincinnati Bearcats
7-5 9-3
It looks like a severe mismatch on paper, but bowl season is all about the intangibles sometimes and the Golden Eagles should be plenty pumped for the last game in the career of the schools most successful coach Jeff Bower. Cincinnati is currently 11 point favorites with the money-line at a disrespectful -420 for Cincinnati and +330 for the Golden Eagles.
WHY YOU SHOULD WATCH:
Southern Miss is a program that has been churning out NFL talent for the better part of a decade, pretty much only on the defensive side of the ball (Michael Boley, Adalius Thomas and Patrick Surtain the most successful). No real talents of that magnitude this time around, but they get after it. MLB Gerald McRath not only has the best name in the Conference, but plays the defense as well earning Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year honors as a sophomore. McRath will lead the way for the Golden Eagles defense as they SHOULD be pumped up for their legendary head coaches last game, but they have dissapeared in big games
The Bearcats have an exciting team led by their aggressive defense, a staple of head coach Brian Kelly. Free saftey Hakuri Nakamura is kinda like a poor man's Troy Polamalu, files around the field leading the defense and making plays, but not that special when it comes to preventing deep passes over the top. The Cats have an eye popping +17 turnover ratio. Quarterback Ben Mauk makes plays with his legs and his arm. He's got lots of targets to throw, led by 165 pound freshman Marcus Bennent (845yards and 13tds).
WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL WIN:
I'm honestly pretty surprised at the 11 point spread. I know Bower has never had an elite team, but he is well liked, and molds young defensive talent expectionally well. I guess the fact that Southern Miss has gone flat in all there big games is a big reason why, but emotions are the ultimate equalizer in bowl games and Bower's last game after 17 years of coaching should have the seniors (watch out for DE/LB Robert Henderson) should be cranked up for at least the first part of the game.
Now as for reasons that have to due with football, it all starts with the running game for USM and Damion Fletcher may be the schools best running back ever (sorry Derrick Nix). He's small, but decisive and hits the hole hard and can break off runs into the secondary and more. Now, doing this against the nations 10th best rushing defense will be there tallest task. Southern Miss' offensive line is very skilled, but they must be prepared for the multiple schemes and stunts from Kelly's aggressive defense.
The passing game must be effective early on for the Eagles to have any chance. TE Shawn Nelson is very underused, he is a great talent but 30 catches on the season. GO DEEP TO HIM EARLY! Nakamura will be too busy looking to take somone's head off and he'll be open deep more than a few times. He's a great mismatch for the Eagles to expose, but they're play calling and the decision making of shaky QB Jeremy Young might prevent any of this from happening. Young also has some wheels, and if he can pull the ball down when no one's open and run for a first down when he can, this game will come down to the wire. Young is very talented, and wears the #10. But his decision making makes him a bootleg version of Vince Young at best. To his credit Young was GMAC bowl MVP last year.
Southern Miss' defense should be o.k., but they'll have to get to Mauk early to take pressure of their young defensive backs. Cincinnatti is gonna spread the ball around anf make the field seem alot bigger than it actually is with their speed, schemes and formations. It'll be tough for them to keep their heads on straight if they get behind 10-0, 14-0 early on in the 1st quarter.
WHY CINCINNATI WILL WIN:
Cincinnati was 7-0 coming into the Louisville game, lost and then never seemed to truly regain that all around game that got them to that point. The seven teams they beat weren't really good, Oregon State probably the best but there quarterback was over his head at this point. Their pass defense has been awful at stopping the big play, any team that gives up 400 yards passing to Syracuse is never a sure thing.
But this agressive defense should give Jeremy Young headaches all day. Young is not known for his shrewd decision making, so ATTACK! ATTACK! ATTACK! The Bearcats +17 turnover margin not only makes up for their 103rd ranked pass def, but 80+ penalty yards they give up a game. The only QB like Mauk the Eagles have seen was Chase Clement on Rice, who is a little bit better of a runner than Mauk, but not as good as a passer. Bower's heavily favored Golden Eagles lost that one 29-31.
WHO WILL WIN:
As much as I think that Southern Miss will be pumped to play this game and it might be a little bit of a let down game for the Bearcats, I can't see Bower's last game going out on a high note. Sorry Jeff. Too much pressure for Jeremy Young to handle. Don't me wrong this game will be closer than most think, but I don't trust Young's ability to find the open man with studs like Anthony Hoke running at him full speed.
PLAYERS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Freshman WR Torris Magee is fast, has great hands and led the Eagles in recieving in his first season. If the Eagles are to win he'll be making big plays out of the slot early and often. 5 catches 90 yards and maybe a td.
MLB Corey Smith is very overlooked on this Bearcats defense. He's always around the ball and it's easy to see the Golden Eagles focusing too much on guys like Hoke and Nakamura and Smith could wreak havoc. 8-10 tackles, maybe a sack and a turnover.
PREDICTON:
Southern Miss, 19 Cincinnati, 31
MVP: I'll take the easy way out of this one and pick QB Ben Mauk. Southern Miss hasn't seemed to have their head on straight for big games, and can be exploited by mobile quarterbcaks like Mauk. Look for 250 and a couple tds threw the air and another 60 yards and a td on the ground.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. #19 Cincinnati Bearcats
7-5 9-3
It looks like a severe mismatch on paper, but bowl season is all about the intangibles sometimes and the Golden Eagles should be plenty pumped for the last game in the career of the schools most successful coach Jeff Bower. Cincinnati is currently 11 point favorites with the money-line at a disrespectful -420 for Cincinnati and +330 for the Golden Eagles.
WHY YOU SHOULD WATCH:
Southern Miss is a program that has been churning out NFL talent for the better part of a decade, pretty much only on the defensive side of the ball (Michael Boley, Adalius Thomas and Patrick Surtain the most successful). No real talents of that magnitude this time around, but they get after it. MLB Gerald McRath not only has the best name in the Conference, but plays the defense as well earning Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year honors as a sophomore. McRath will lead the way for the Golden Eagles defense as they SHOULD be pumped up for their legendary head coaches last game, but they have dissapeared in big games
The Bearcats have an exciting team led by their aggressive defense, a staple of head coach Brian Kelly. Free saftey Hakuri Nakamura is kinda like a poor man's Troy Polamalu, files around the field leading the defense and making plays, but not that special when it comes to preventing deep passes over the top. The Cats have an eye popping +17 turnover ratio. Quarterback Ben Mauk makes plays with his legs and his arm. He's got lots of targets to throw, led by 165 pound freshman Marcus Bennent (845yards and 13tds).
WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL WIN:
I'm honestly pretty surprised at the 11 point spread. I know Bower has never had an elite team, but he is well liked, and molds young defensive talent expectionally well. I guess the fact that Southern Miss has gone flat in all there big games is a big reason why, but emotions are the ultimate equalizer in bowl games and Bower's last game after 17 years of coaching should have the seniors (watch out for DE/LB Robert Henderson) should be cranked up for at least the first part of the game.
Now as for reasons that have to due with football, it all starts with the running game for USM and Damion Fletcher may be the schools best running back ever (sorry Derrick Nix). He's small, but decisive and hits the hole hard and can break off runs into the secondary and more. Now, doing this against the nations 10th best rushing defense will be there tallest task. Southern Miss' offensive line is very skilled, but they must be prepared for the multiple schemes and stunts from Kelly's aggressive defense.
The passing game must be effective early on for the Eagles to have any chance. TE Shawn Nelson is very underused, he is a great talent but 30 catches on the season. GO DEEP TO HIM EARLY! Nakamura will be too busy looking to take somone's head off and he'll be open deep more than a few times. He's a great mismatch for the Eagles to expose, but they're play calling and the decision making of shaky QB Jeremy Young might prevent any of this from happening. Young also has some wheels, and if he can pull the ball down when no one's open and run for a first down when he can, this game will come down to the wire. Young is very talented, and wears the #10. But his decision making makes him a bootleg version of Vince Young at best. To his credit Young was GMAC bowl MVP last year.
Southern Miss' defense should be o.k., but they'll have to get to Mauk early to take pressure of their young defensive backs. Cincinnatti is gonna spread the ball around anf make the field seem alot bigger than it actually is with their speed, schemes and formations. It'll be tough for them to keep their heads on straight if they get behind 10-0, 14-0 early on in the 1st quarter.
WHY CINCINNATI WILL WIN:
Cincinnati was 7-0 coming into the Louisville game, lost and then never seemed to truly regain that all around game that got them to that point. The seven teams they beat weren't really good, Oregon State probably the best but there quarterback was over his head at this point. Their pass defense has been awful at stopping the big play, any team that gives up 400 yards passing to Syracuse is never a sure thing.
But this agressive defense should give Jeremy Young headaches all day. Young is not known for his shrewd decision making, so ATTACK! ATTACK! ATTACK! The Bearcats +17 turnover margin not only makes up for their 103rd ranked pass def, but 80+ penalty yards they give up a game. The only QB like Mauk the Eagles have seen was Chase Clement on Rice, who is a little bit better of a runner than Mauk, but not as good as a passer. Bower's heavily favored Golden Eagles lost that one 29-31.
WHO WILL WIN:
As much as I think that Southern Miss will be pumped to play this game and it might be a little bit of a let down game for the Bearcats, I can't see Bower's last game going out on a high note. Sorry Jeff. Too much pressure for Jeremy Young to handle. Don't me wrong this game will be closer than most think, but I don't trust Young's ability to find the open man with studs like Anthony Hoke running at him full speed.
PLAYERS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Freshman WR Torris Magee is fast, has great hands and led the Eagles in recieving in his first season. If the Eagles are to win he'll be making big plays out of the slot early and often. 5 catches 90 yards and maybe a td.
MLB Corey Smith is very overlooked on this Bearcats defense. He's always around the ball and it's easy to see the Golden Eagles focusing too much on guys like Hoke and Nakamura and Smith could wreak havoc. 8-10 tackles, maybe a sack and a turnover.
PREDICTON:
Southern Miss, 19 Cincinnati, 31
MVP: I'll take the easy way out of this one and pick QB Ben Mauk. Southern Miss hasn't seemed to have their head on straight for big games, and can be exploited by mobile quarterbcaks like Mauk. Look for 250 and a couple tds threw the air and another 60 yards and a td on the ground.
TEAM PROFILE: #19 Cincinnati Bearcats
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-3
Key Players:
DT- Terrill Byrd: good powerful first push, can get to QB, plays hurt
6-1, 290 JR (Ohio)- 2nd ALL AMERICA 07’, 1st Big East 07’, 1st Big East 06’
CB- Mike Mickens: great cover skills, athletic, could be preseason all America next yr
6-0, 190 JR (Ohio)- 1st Big East 07’, 2nd Big East 06’
FS- Hakuri Nakamura: emotional leader of secondary, 4.45, good athlete, returns punts
5-10, 190 SR (Ohio)- 1st Big East 07’
P- Kevin Huber: big time leg
6-1, 210 SR (Ohio)- 1st ALL AMERICA 07’, Big East Special Teams POY 07’
1st Big East 07’
QB- Ben Mauk: very mobile playmaker, accurate passer, efficent
6-1, 200 SR (Ohio)
WR- Marcus Barnett: great athlete, great leap
6-1, 165 FR (Md)- 2nd Big East 07’
OG- Trevor Canfield: key member of line and leader
6-5, 320 JR (Ohio)- 2nd Big East 07’, 2nd Big East 06’
DE- Anthony Hoke: gets after QB, good speed and keeps getting bigger
6-1, 255 SR (Ohio)- 2nd Big East 07’
CB- DeAngelo Smith: fast, big play corner
6-0, 185 JR (Ohio)- 2nd Big East 07’
WR- Dominick Goodman: was great KR in 06, explosive playmaker
6-1, 210 JR (Ohio)
TE- Connor Barwin: developed a lot from last year, solid blocker
6-4, 235 JR (Mich)
Watch Out For:
MLB- Corey Smith: fast, covers ground, 2.5 sacks, 2int
6-1, 225 JR (NJ)
Team Info:
Passing Off: 282.2 yrds/g, 23rd in NCAA
-Mauck better rolling out of the pocket than drop back passer
-skill positions very talented and underrated
Rushing Off: 157.4 yrds/g, 54th in NCAA
-must be able to get pressure off Mauk
-best between tackles
KEY TO GAME
Passing Def: 265.0 yrds/g, 103rd in NCAA
-very strange considering their skill players
-give up big plays, but force lots of turnovers to make up for it
-Hoke can create havoc for QBs
-worse as season progressed, 400+yrds to Syracuse
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Rushing Def: 106.1 yrds/g, 13th in NCAA
-Bryd is a powerful anchor of this unit
-Nakamura a lot better against run than pass, poor mans Polamalu
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Special Teams:
Kicking- B- (55% for the year, 1-6 40-49, 1-1 50+ 55lng)
Punting- A+
Return Game- B-
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conversions- 64/164 (39%) vs. 62/179 (35%)
Penalties- 114 for 977yrds (81.4per) vs. 89 for 792yrds (66.0per)
Turnovers- 22 vs. 39 (+17)
TOP- 28:58 vs. 31:01
Head Coach: Brian Kelly, 2nd season- 10-3 (coached and won Intl Bowl) 1-0bowls
-former CMich coach, left in 06 and won Intl bowl last year
-53-11 at Grand Valley State
-aggressive def coach
*seem to eliminate big plays and penalties by forcing turnovers
*teams lives and dies by turnovers forced and efficiency of Mauk
Key Players:
DT- Terrill Byrd: good powerful first push, can get to QB, plays hurt
6-1, 290 JR (Ohio)- 2nd ALL AMERICA 07’, 1st Big East 07’, 1st Big East 06’
CB- Mike Mickens: great cover skills, athletic, could be preseason all America next yr
6-0, 190 JR (Ohio)- 1st Big East 07’, 2nd Big East 06’
FS- Hakuri Nakamura: emotional leader of secondary, 4.45, good athlete, returns punts
5-10, 190 SR (Ohio)- 1st Big East 07’
P- Kevin Huber: big time leg
6-1, 210 SR (Ohio)- 1st ALL AMERICA 07’, Big East Special Teams POY 07’
1st Big East 07’
QB- Ben Mauk: very mobile playmaker, accurate passer, efficent
6-1, 200 SR (Ohio)
WR- Marcus Barnett: great athlete, great leap
6-1, 165 FR (Md)- 2nd Big East 07’
OG- Trevor Canfield: key member of line and leader
6-5, 320 JR (Ohio)- 2nd Big East 07’, 2nd Big East 06’
DE- Anthony Hoke: gets after QB, good speed and keeps getting bigger
6-1, 255 SR (Ohio)- 2nd Big East 07’
CB- DeAngelo Smith: fast, big play corner
6-0, 185 JR (Ohio)- 2nd Big East 07’
WR- Dominick Goodman: was great KR in 06, explosive playmaker
6-1, 210 JR (Ohio)
TE- Connor Barwin: developed a lot from last year, solid blocker
6-4, 235 JR (Mich)
Watch Out For:
MLB- Corey Smith: fast, covers ground, 2.5 sacks, 2int
6-1, 225 JR (NJ)
Team Info:
Passing Off: 282.2 yrds/g, 23rd in NCAA
-Mauck better rolling out of the pocket than drop back passer
-skill positions very talented and underrated
Rushing Off: 157.4 yrds/g, 54th in NCAA
-must be able to get pressure off Mauk
-best between tackles
KEY TO GAME
Passing Def: 265.0 yrds/g, 103rd in NCAA
-very strange considering their skill players
-give up big plays, but force lots of turnovers to make up for it
-Hoke can create havoc for QBs
-worse as season progressed, 400+yrds to Syracuse
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Rushing Def: 106.1 yrds/g, 13th in NCAA
-Bryd is a powerful anchor of this unit
-Nakamura a lot better against run than pass, poor mans Polamalu
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Special Teams:
Kicking- B- (55% for the year, 1-6 40-49, 1-1 50+ 55lng)
Punting- A+
Return Game- B-
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conversions- 64/164 (39%) vs. 62/179 (35%)
Penalties- 114 for 977yrds (81.4per) vs. 89 for 792yrds (66.0per)
Turnovers- 22 vs. 39 (+17)
TOP- 28:58 vs. 31:01
Head Coach: Brian Kelly, 2nd season- 10-3 (coached and won Intl Bowl) 1-0bowls
-former CMich coach, left in 06 and won Intl bowl last year
-53-11 at Grand Valley State
-aggressive def coach
*seem to eliminate big plays and penalties by forcing turnovers
*teams lives and dies by turnovers forced and efficiency of Mauk
TEAM PROFILE: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Southrern Miss Golden Eagles 7-5
Key Players:
OT- Chris Clark: Anchor of line, 36 career starts
6-5, 290 SR (La)- 1st CUSA 07’
TE- Shawn Nelson: stretches the field, don’t throw to him enough
6-5, 240 JR (La)- 1st CUSA 07’
DE- Matthew Chatelain: teams top pass rusher, stable and steady, def leader
6-2, 247 SR (La)- 1st CUSA 07’
DT- Martavius Prince: very active, makes lots of tackles, big time run stuffer
6-3, 287 SR (Fla)- 1st CUSA 07’, 2nd CUSA 06’
MLB- Gerald McRath: on Bednarik Watch, 131tack 13th in NCAA, 10for loss, 4.5sk
6-3, 212 SO (Ga)- Def POY CUSA 07’ 1st CUSA 07’, 06’ 3rd CUSA,
All Frosh CUSA 06’
CB- Brandon Sumrall: great KR too, one of teams hardest hitters and fastest players
5-11, 195 SR (Miss)- 1st CUSA 07’, 3rd CUSA 06’, 2nd CUSA in 05’
RB- Damion Fletcher: quick feet, strong legs, one cut back, Warrick Dunn type
5-10, 175 SO (Miss)- 2nd CUSA 07’, 1st CUSA 06’, All Frosh CUSA 06’,
Off FOY CUSA 06’, All Frosh CUSA 06’
OG- Nick Dean: consistent, good improvement over last 2 years, played tackle
6-3, 284 SR (Miss)- 2nd CUSA 07’
OT- Ryan McKee: strong, consistent technique
6-6, 275 JR (Ala)- 2nd CUSA 07’
P- Britt Barefoot: outstanding at kickoffs as well, very strong leg
6-0, 181 JR (Miss)- 2nd CUSA 07’
QB- Jeremy Young: athleticism always greater than football IQ, 06 GMAC bowl MVP
6-3, 215 SR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’
OT- Calvin Wilson: MissState transfer, good speed for his massive size, great run blocker
6-6, 352 JR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’
DE- Robert Henderson: explosive, ‘bandit’ end
6-3, 283 SR (La)- HM CUSA 07, 3rd CUSA 06’
CB- C.J. Bailey: outstanding athlete, former QB, good cover skills
5-10, 182 FR (Miss)- All Frosh 07’ CUSA
FS- Chico Hunter: good performance in first year
6-0, 190 FR (Miss)- All Frosh 07’ CUSA
K- Justin Estes: good leg, maybe not from 45+ though, 15-22
5-9, 160 FR (Ohio)- HM CUSA 07’, All Frosh CUSA 07’
Watch Our For:
WR- Torris Magee: speedy slot receiver, great hands too, led team in receiving
6-2, 204 FR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’
Team Info:
Passing Off: 193.6 yrds/g, 90th in NCAA
-ALL revolves around Jeremy Young, performed well in 1st bowl game
-need to be successful to get pressure off Fletcher and get guys out of the box
-have 2 talented receivers in Magee and Nelson
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Rushing Off: 202.6 yrds/g, 20th NCAA
-Fletcher probably schools best back ever
-Young can convert 3rd and short with legs IF he plays with his head on straight
-great line
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Passing Def: 223.6 yrds/g, 52nd in NCAA
-young, but talented in secondary
-good pass rush is necessary to give Bailey and Hunter less time to cover rec
-senior DEs could have big game
Rushing Def: 140.4 yrds/g, 49th in NCAA
-McRath is a force
-can’t get too far up the field
-have to key up on Mauk
KEY TO THE GAME
Special Teams:
Kicking: B+ (43 lng, 4+40)
Punting: A-
Return Game: B+
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conversions- 83/181 (46%) vs.73/173 (42%)
Penalties- 63 for 620yrds (51.7per) vs. 82 for 658yrds (54.8)
Turnovers- 26 vs. 24 (-2)
TOP- 30:16 vs. 29:44
Head Coach: Jeff Bower will retire after this game after his 17th season at Southern Miss
-14 straight winning seasons
-team will be pumped up to play for him
Key Players:
OT- Chris Clark: Anchor of line, 36 career starts
6-5, 290 SR (La)- 1st CUSA 07’
TE- Shawn Nelson: stretches the field, don’t throw to him enough
6-5, 240 JR (La)- 1st CUSA 07’
DE- Matthew Chatelain: teams top pass rusher, stable and steady, def leader
6-2, 247 SR (La)- 1st CUSA 07’
DT- Martavius Prince: very active, makes lots of tackles, big time run stuffer
6-3, 287 SR (Fla)- 1st CUSA 07’, 2nd CUSA 06’
MLB- Gerald McRath: on Bednarik Watch, 131tack 13th in NCAA, 10for loss, 4.5sk
6-3, 212 SO (Ga)- Def POY CUSA 07’ 1st CUSA 07’, 06’ 3rd CUSA,
All Frosh CUSA 06’
CB- Brandon Sumrall: great KR too, one of teams hardest hitters and fastest players
5-11, 195 SR (Miss)- 1st CUSA 07’, 3rd CUSA 06’, 2nd CUSA in 05’
RB- Damion Fletcher: quick feet, strong legs, one cut back, Warrick Dunn type
5-10, 175 SO (Miss)- 2nd CUSA 07’, 1st CUSA 06’, All Frosh CUSA 06’,
Off FOY CUSA 06’, All Frosh CUSA 06’
OG- Nick Dean: consistent, good improvement over last 2 years, played tackle
6-3, 284 SR (Miss)- 2nd CUSA 07’
OT- Ryan McKee: strong, consistent technique
6-6, 275 JR (Ala)- 2nd CUSA 07’
P- Britt Barefoot: outstanding at kickoffs as well, very strong leg
6-0, 181 JR (Miss)- 2nd CUSA 07’
QB- Jeremy Young: athleticism always greater than football IQ, 06 GMAC bowl MVP
6-3, 215 SR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’
OT- Calvin Wilson: MissState transfer, good speed for his massive size, great run blocker
6-6, 352 JR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’
DE- Robert Henderson: explosive, ‘bandit’ end
6-3, 283 SR (La)- HM CUSA 07, 3rd CUSA 06’
CB- C.J. Bailey: outstanding athlete, former QB, good cover skills
5-10, 182 FR (Miss)- All Frosh 07’ CUSA
FS- Chico Hunter: good performance in first year
6-0, 190 FR (Miss)- All Frosh 07’ CUSA
K- Justin Estes: good leg, maybe not from 45+ though, 15-22
5-9, 160 FR (Ohio)- HM CUSA 07’, All Frosh CUSA 07’
Watch Our For:
WR- Torris Magee: speedy slot receiver, great hands too, led team in receiving
6-2, 204 FR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’
Team Info:
Passing Off: 193.6 yrds/g, 90th in NCAA
-ALL revolves around Jeremy Young, performed well in 1st bowl game
-need to be successful to get pressure off Fletcher and get guys out of the box
-have 2 talented receivers in Magee and Nelson
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Rushing Off: 202.6 yrds/g, 20th NCAA
-Fletcher probably schools best back ever
-Young can convert 3rd and short with legs IF he plays with his head on straight
-great line
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Passing Def: 223.6 yrds/g, 52nd in NCAA
-young, but talented in secondary
-good pass rush is necessary to give Bailey and Hunter less time to cover rec
-senior DEs could have big game
Rushing Def: 140.4 yrds/g, 49th in NCAA
-McRath is a force
-can’t get too far up the field
-have to key up on Mauk
KEY TO THE GAME
Special Teams:
Kicking: B+ (43 lng, 4+40)
Punting: A-
Return Game: B+
Key Stats:
3rd Down Conversions- 83/181 (46%) vs.73/173 (42%)
Penalties- 63 for 620yrds (51.7per) vs. 82 for 658yrds (54.8)
Turnovers- 26 vs. 24 (-2)
TOP- 30:16 vs. 29:44
Head Coach: Jeff Bower will retire after this game after his 17th season at Southern Miss
-14 straight winning seasons
-team will be pumped up to play for him
*good talent, seem to have underachieved greatly in big games this year
*Jeremy Young’s performance is especially crucial, has to not lose the game, not win it
*Being able to stop Mauk’s running will decide the game, he converts a lot of 3rd downs
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