Bower's Last Stand

2007 Papajohns.com Bowl ( $300,000 payout)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. #19 Cincinnati Bearcats
7-5 9-3


It looks like a severe mismatch on paper, but bowl season is all about the intangibles sometimes and the Golden Eagles should be plenty pumped for the last game in the career of the schools most successful coach Jeff Bower. Cincinnati is currently 11 point favorites with the money-line at a disrespectful -420 for Cincinnati and +330 for the Golden Eagles.

WHY YOU SHOULD WATCH:
Southern Miss is a program that has been churning out NFL talent for the better part of a decade, pretty much only on the defensive side of the ball (Michael Boley, Adalius Thomas and Patrick Surtain the most successful). No real talents of that magnitude this time around, but they get after it. MLB Gerald McRath not only has the best name in the Conference, but plays the defense as well earning Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year honors as a sophomore. McRath will lead the way for the Golden Eagles defense as they SHOULD be pumped up for their legendary head coaches last game, but they have dissapeared in big games

The Bearcats have an exciting team led by their aggressive defense, a staple of head coach Brian Kelly. Free saftey Hakuri Nakamura is kinda like a poor man's Troy Polamalu, files around the field leading the defense and making plays, but not that special when it comes to preventing deep passes over the top. The Cats have an eye popping +17 turnover ratio. Quarterback Ben Mauk makes plays with his legs and his arm. He's got lots of targets to throw, led by 165 pound freshman Marcus Bennent (845yards and 13tds).


WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL WIN:
I'm honestly pretty surprised at the 11 point spread. I know Bower has never had an elite team, but he is well liked, and molds young defensive talent expectionally well. I guess the fact that Southern Miss has gone flat in all there big games is a big reason why, but emotions are the ultimate equalizer in bowl games and Bower's last game after 17 years of coaching should have the seniors (watch out for DE/LB Robert Henderson) should be cranked up for at least the first part of the game.

Now as for reasons that have to due with football, it all starts with the running game for USM and Damion Fletcher may be the schools best running back ever (sorry Derrick Nix). He's small, but decisive and hits the hole hard and can break off runs into the secondary and more. Now, doing this against the nations 10th best rushing defense will be there tallest task. Southern Miss' offensive line is very skilled, but they must be prepared for the multiple schemes and stunts from Kelly's aggressive defense.

The passing game must be effective early on for the Eagles to have any chance. TE Shawn Nelson is very underused, he is a great talent but 30 catches on the season. GO DEEP TO HIM EARLY! Nakamura will be too busy looking to take somone's head off and he'll be open deep more than a few times. He's a great mismatch for the Eagles to expose, but they're play calling and the decision making of shaky QB Jeremy Young might prevent any of this from happening. Young also has some wheels, and if he can pull the ball down when no one's open and run for a first down when he can, this game will come down to the wire. Young is very talented, and wears the #10. But his decision making makes him a bootleg version of Vince Young at best. To his credit Young was GMAC bowl MVP last year.

Southern Miss' defense should be o.k., but they'll have to get to Mauk early to take pressure of their young defensive backs. Cincinnatti is gonna spread the ball around anf make the field seem alot bigger than it actually is with their speed, schemes and formations. It'll be tough for them to keep their heads on straight if they get behind 10-0, 14-0 early on in the 1st quarter.


WHY CINCINNATI WILL WIN:

Cincinnati was 7-0 coming into the Louisville game, lost and then never seemed to truly regain that all around game that got them to that point. The seven teams they beat weren't really good, Oregon State probably the best but there quarterback was over his head at this point. Their pass defense has been awful at stopping the big play, any team that gives up 400 yards passing to Syracuse is never a sure thing.

But this agressive defense should give Jeremy Young headaches all day. Young is not known for his shrewd decision making, so ATTACK! ATTACK! ATTACK! The Bearcats +17 turnover margin not only makes up for their 103rd ranked pass def, but 80+ penalty yards they give up a game. The only QB like Mauk the Eagles have seen was Chase Clement on Rice, who is a little bit better of a runner than Mauk, but not as good as a passer. Bower's heavily favored Golden Eagles lost that one 29-31.


WHO WILL WIN:

As much as I think that Southern Miss will be pumped to play this game and it might be a little bit of a let down game for the Bearcats, I can't see Bower's last game going out on a high note. Sorry Jeff. Too much pressure for Jeremy Young to handle. Don't me wrong this game will be closer than most think, but I don't trust Young's ability to find the open man with studs like Anthony Hoke running at him full speed.

PLAYERS TO WATCH OUT FOR:

Freshman WR Torris Magee is fast, has great hands and led the Eagles in recieving in his first season. If the Eagles are to win he'll be making big plays out of the slot early and often. 5 catches 90 yards and maybe a td.

MLB Corey Smith is very overlooked on this Bearcats defense. He's always around the ball and it's easy to see the Golden Eagles focusing too much on guys like Hoke and Nakamura and Smith could wreak havoc. 8-10 tackles, maybe a sack and a turnover.

PREDICTON:

Southern Miss, 19 Cincinnati, 31


MVP: I'll take the easy way out of this one and pick QB Ben Mauk. Southern Miss hasn't seemed to have their head on straight for big games, and can be exploited by mobile quarterbcaks like Mauk. Look for 250 and a couple tds threw the air and another 60 yards and a td on the ground.