Friday, December 21, 2007

2007 Papajohns.com Bowl Preview

2007 PapaJohns.com Bowl

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. #19Cincinnati Bearcats
7-5 9-3

Tenn-Martin, W 35-13 SE Missouri St, W 59-3
@ #24 Tennessee, L 19-39 Oregon State, W 34-3
@ East Carolina, W 28-21 @ Miami Ohio, W 47-10
@ Boise State, L 16-38 Marshall, W 40-14
Rice, L 29-31 @ SD State, W 52-23
SMU, W 28-7 @ #21 Rutgers, W 28-23
@ Marshall, W 33-24
UCF, L 17-34 Louisville, L 24-28
@ UAB, W 37-7 @ Pittsburgh, L, 17-24
Memphis, L 26-29 @ #20 South Florida, W 28-23
@ UTEP, W 56-30 #16 Connecticut, W 27-3
Arkansas St, W 16-10 #5 West Virginia, L 23-28
@ Syracuse, W 52-31


USM Pass Off vs. Cincy Pass Def: 2
Adv- Cincy
USM Rush Off vs. Cincy Rush Def: 2
Adv- USM

Cincy Pass Off vs. USM Pass Def: 4
Adv- Cincy
Cincy Rush Off vs. USM Rush Def: 1
Adv- Cincy

USM Special Teams: 5
Cincy Special Teams: 4

3rd Down Conv- USM, 2
Turnovers- Cinc, 5
Penalties- USM, 4
TOP- USM, 3

Coaching- Cincy, 4
Intangibles- USM, 5

Size- USM, 2
Speed- Cincy, 4

TOTALS:
USM- 24
Cincy- 24

This is NOT an NCAA Marness Madness First Round Game

2007 R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl ( $325,000 payout)

Florida Atlantic Owls 7-5 vs. Memphis Tigers 7-5



This matchup reads more like a 2 seed vs. a 15 in the opening round of an NCAA tournament, and the ball may be in the air for just as long, as both teams throw for right around 300 yards a game and play no defense at all. It's Florida Atlantic's first bowl game ever and Memphis' 3rd under coach Tommy West. West is 2-1 in bowls, including a win in the New Orleans bowl in 2005 over North Texas. Neither of that seems to matter too much as the Owls are laying 3 points currently with the moneyline sitting at -160 for the Owls and +140 for the Tigers.

Memphis' wide recievers look like they should be contending for the Final Four instead of a bowl game as Doug Calhoun, Carlos Singleton and Maurice Jones stand at 6-4, 6-8 and 6-4 respectivley. Senior Martin Hankins has been on fire latley, averaging 330yrds+ a game for last month and a half of the regular season. This could force Florida Atlantic defensive backs to make on the reciever rather that the ball when its in the air, especially late in the game when they'll be exhautsted from running backwards for 25+ yards every play for 45 minutes. Pass inteference penalites have the potential to KILL the owls in this one.

These teams are mirrors of themselves, maybe no other bowl game features two teams that are so much alike. In games like this it often comes down to coaching and prepartaion. Florida Atlantic is coached by the legendary and former National Coach of the Year Howard Schnellenbeger, who was also a part of 2 Super Bowl coaching staffs witht the Miami Dolphins in the 70's. Sophomore QB Rusty Smith was Sun Belt Player of the Year, as prestigious an award as any QB named Rusty has ever earned. Wideout Cortez Gent and tight end Jason Harmon are his top targets, both makin 1st all Sun Belt teams as well, Gent averaging a whopping 16.9 yards a a grab.

Leading up to this game all I keep hearing is that the x-factor will be that Florida Atlantic's +19 turnover magin (tied for the nation's best) will force Memphis into bad decsions and give Florida Atlantic the short field they need to win. But the thing is, despite all the turnovers, the Owls are ranked 75th in the nation in passing def (237 yards a game) and 83rd against the run (179.5 yards a game). So what does that mean?

It means that there defense is awful. They rely on the big play, and often get it, but when they don't the other team is making 20+ yard gains on multiple plays every drive. Memphis is in a similar boat, but not as bad. They sport an impressive +9 turnover margin and are 76th in the nation against the forward pass and 64th against the run. Numbers are a little better, but similar to Florida Atlantic's.

I mean, I really have no clue about this game. If it comes down to caoching and motivation, the Owls have the huge edge as Schellenberger is 4-0 in bowls and been through it all, where as Tommy West seems to be the Conference USA version of Mack Brown. Great recruiter who's fans love him in Februrary and are at the door with pitchforks by mid-November.

Neither team has had real impressive victories, Florida Atlantic has played a tougher schedule with a beat downs at Florida and Kentucky and a close loss at home to South Florida. Memphis beat.......uhhh Tulane, oh but Matt Forte did only run for 278 yards in the game.

Memphis has been worse at stopping the run (Forte's 278 yard effort was follower up by a 300 yard 4 td effort from ECU's Chris Johnson) and thats the only real reason I can't throw them under the bus for this game. Their secondry seems to overachieve and I wouldn't be surprised if they forced the overly excited Owls into a few turnovers. Memphis is 0-2 versus the Sun Belt this year, but Confernce USA has taken 3 of the last 4 New Orleans bowls. Meaningless statictics once again consuming my brain.

As far as surprise impact players to watch out for, on the Florida Atlantic side look out for free saftey Taheem Acevado. He's tied for second on the team with 5ints, and hits. This is his last game and first bowl. He'll be excited to prove to all those other Florida schools that "see I could've played in the ACC or SEC, I picked off Martin FREAKING Hankins!" I look for him to have 7-8 tackles, and a pick or fumble recovery.

Memphis' front-court of recievers should be able to make plays on a Florida Atlantic secondary most of the game, Acevado is the only one over 5-10. But look for the 3rd reciever to have a surprising impact, Maurice Jones. Not realted to the Jaguars runner, this MJ is 6-4, with speed and hands and has gotten hot towards the latter part of the season. Should be good for about 4 catches, 110 yards and a long TD as he will be up against safties and nickel backs most of the game.

In the end, my gut tells me this:
-Florida Atlantic gets out to a 17/14-3 lead early.
-Memphis makes a few big plays, forces a with less than 5 minutes left in the half, scores again and takes a 21-17, 20-14 lead into half time
-Florida Atlantic all of sudden can't make any plays in the 3rd quarter, Memphis capitalizes with a few scores, now we got a 35-17, 31-14 route
-BUT, i forget the mention that MEMPHIS HAS AWFUL SPECIAL TEAMS
-they either give the Owls great field position or get a punt/fg blocked, muff a punt return or just miss an easy field goal, giving the Owls momentum. (Bad special teams ALWAYS catches up to you in the end)
-The Owls come hooting back in the 4th quarter and tie the game on a FG with about 2min left, 35-35 or 31-31
-now this is where my fortune telling skills get hazy.
.......I see Memphis driving
.......Hankins throws a bomb to Singleton form the goal line to the 20 yard line....
.......and.............td?.......pick?.......pass interferene?.........

who knows

My football brain says a questionable P.I penatly that will give Memphis the game. But my heart says that Florida Atlantic will somehow make a big play and win the game in the end. It will be close and that 3 point spread is hard to pick with was well. In the end, I just can't pick against the Owls.

First bowl game, legendary coach, should be enough. But size, speed and athleticsim was supposed to be enough for Navy to get blown out by Utah.

Florida Atlantic, 42
Memphis, 38

MVP: I'll go with TE Jason Harmon. He's had a nice season, and I think Rusty Smith comes out a bit....well, rusty...and turns the ball over a few times. Harmon is a matchup nightmare for a team like the Tigers and should give their 2nd tier cover guys problems across the middle all day. Don't be shocked if Harmon ends up with 11 catches, 145 yards and a couple of scores.

2007 New Orleans Bowl Preview

2007 New Orleans Bowl


Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Memphis Tigers
7-5 7-5

Mid Tenn St W 27-14 Mississippi, L 21-23
@ Oklahoma St L 6-42 Jacksonville St, W 35-14
Minnesota W 42-39 @UCF, L 20-56
@ North Texas W 30-20 @Ark State, L 31-35
@ #14 Kentucky L 17-45 Marshall, W 24-21
#6 South FloridaL 23-35 Mid Tenn St, L 7-21
@Louisiana Layf., W 39-32 @Rice, W 38-35
Louisiana-Monroe, L 30-33 @Tulane, W 28-27
Arkansas State, W 34-31 East Carolina, L 40-56
@ #14 Florida, L 20-59 @ Southern Miss, W 29-26
@ Florida Int, W 55-23 UAB, W 25-9
@ Troy, W 38-32 SMU, W 55-52

Florida Atl Rushing vs. Memphis Rush Def: 1
Adv- Florida Atl
Florida Atl Passing vs. Memphis Pass Def: 5
Adv- Florida Atl

Memphis Rushing vs. Florida Atl Rush Def: 2
Adv- Memphis
Memphis Passing vs. Florida Atl Pass Def: 5
Adv- Memphis

Florida Atl Special Teams: 3
Memphis Special Teams: 1

3rd Down Conv- Memphis, 2
Turnovers- Flordia Atl, 3
Penalties- Florida Atl, 1
TOP- Florida Atl, 1

Coaching- Florida Atl, 2
Intangibles- Memphis, 5

Size- Memphis, 3
Speed- Florida Atl, 2

TOTALS:
Florida Atlantic- 18
Memphis- 18

TEAM PROFILE: 2007 Memphis Tigers

Memphis Tigers, 7-5


Playmakers:

WR- Duke Calhoun: Led team in rec yrds and tds last 2 yrs, 7th best rec in Mem history
6-4, 195 SO (Tenn)- 2nd CUSA 07’, All Frosh CUSA 06’

OG- Andy Smith: been great against pass last 3 years as a unit leader
6-4, 312 SR (Ga)- 1st CUSA 07’

OLB- Jake Kasser: former walk on, high motor intensity guy
5-10, 205 SR (Tenn)- 2nd CUSA 07’

C/G- Dominik Riley: highly touted out of high school, 7 starts
6-4, 305 FR (Ala)- All Frosh CUSA 07’

QB- Martin Hankins: transfer from SE Lou. where he was prolific, efficient, overlooked
6-2, 210 SR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’

WR- Carlos Singleton: good athlete, great upside
6-8, 215 SO (Tenn)- HM CUSA 07’

FS- Brandon Middleton: leads team with 3ints, shifted from CB, good ball instincts
6-1, 195 JR (Tenn)

DE- Greg Terrell: led team with 5 sacks in 06’, Blue-Gray game co MVP in 06’
6-4, 255 SO (Ala)- All Frosh CUSA 06’

OT- Brandon Pearce: consistent, strong, started 20 straight as freshman and soph
6-6, 300 JR (Tenn)- HM CUSA 07’, 3rd CUSA 06’, All Frosh CUSA 05’

TE- Brett Russell: good when targeted, solid blocker
6-3, 245 JR (Tenn)- HM CUSA 07’

WR/KR- Earnest Williams: speedy, good after catch
6-0, 192 JR (Tenn)- HM CUSA 07’ (WR and KR)

DT- Clinton McDonald: vastly improved over frosh year
6-3, 265 JR (Ark)- HM CUSA 07’

CB- LaKeitharun Ford: JUCO transfer in 05’, speedy
5-9, 180 SR (Miss)- HM CUSA 07’

Watch Out For:
WR- Maurice Jones: big play threat, only 70yrds last year
6-4, 215 JR (Tenn)- HM CUSA 07’


Team Info:

Passing Off: 307.8 yrds/g, 12th in NCAA
-Martin Hankins has been tremendous in last 6 games, +2050yrds at least 298each
-team has went 5-1 in that span
-recievers are 6-4, 6-8 and 6-4
-OUTSTANDING pass protection
BIGGEST STRENGTH

Rushing Off: 139.6 yrds/g, 76th in NCAA
-Pitts and Doss are capable of big plays at times
-line much better suited in pass protection than smash mouth blocking

Passing Def: 229.8 yrds/g, 64th in NCAA
-play better than their talent
-don’t force too many picks
-don’t allow big play either
KEY TO GAME

Rushing Def: 209.8 yrds/g, 110th in NCAA
-2 games back to back gave up 278 and 301 to indv rushers, ECar and Tul
-not dreadful, just bad, worst at mid-later part of season
BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Special Teams:
Kicking- D+ (no field goals over 40yrds)
Punting- C
Return Game- C

Key Stats:
3rd Down Conversion- 85/198 (43%) vs. 84/164 (51%)
Penalties- 81 for 668yrds (55.7per) vs. 71 for 631 (52.6per)
Turnovers- 16 vs. 25 (+9)
TOP- 30:19 vs. 29:41

Coaching:
Head Coach: Tommy West, 7th season- 41-43, 1-2 in bowl games
-former Clemson coach 94-98
-solid recruiter, probably better at that than coaching

*Memphis is a one of the most pass heavy teams in country last 2 months
*get outstanding pass protection, can get into heavy shootouts
*good academic standards compared to years past

TEAM PROFILE: 2007 Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic Owls 7-5

Key Players:

QB- Rusty Smith: big, strong arm, surprise he’s so good as a soph
6-5, 212 SO (Fla)- 2007 CUSA Player of Year, 1st Sun Belt 07’

WR- Cortez Gent: only 66yrds in 06’, stretches field with big plays, 40 only in 4.5s
6-2, 185 SO (Fla)- 1st Sun Belt 07’

TE- Jason Harmon: came on strong after good offseason in weight room
6-3, 210 JR (Fla)- 1st Sun Belt 07’

MLB- Frantz Joseph: hard hitter, in on lots of plays, record 121tackles, 10.5for loss
6-3, 235 JR (Fla)- 1st Sun Belt 07’

SLB- Cergile Sincere: covers ground, 111tackles, will play in Hula Bowl
6-0, 215 SR (Fla)- 1st Sun Belt 07’, HM SunBelt 06’

CB- Tavaris Polo: school record 7ints, broke A. Woodson’s streak at 325comp w/ no int
5-10, 160 FR (Fla)- 1st Sun Belt 07’

OT- John Rizzo: anchors line that scores +30 a game, consistent, hard nosed, plays hurt
6-4, 300 JR (Fla)- 2nd Sun Belt 07’

OG- Jarrid Smith: first player in program to graduate and seek 2nd degree
6-3, 280 SR (Fla)- 2nd Sun Belt 07’

DT- Jervonte Jackson: run stuffer, 25 tackles, 2 for loss
6-5, 300 JR (Fla)- 2nd Sun Belt 07’

CB- Corey Small: 5ints, can tackle well, good speed
5-10, 182 JR (Fla)- 2nd Sun Belt 07’

RB- Charles Pierre: does not catch passes out of backfield, good in weightroom
5-9, 210 JR (Fla)- HM Sun Belt 07’

SS- Kris Bartels: team def MVP in 06’, athletic can make plays
5-10, 205 SR (Fla)- HM Sun Belt 07’

P- Keegan Peterson: former kicker, good leg, on Ray Guy Watch earlier in season
6-1, 175 SO (Fla)

FB- William Rose: nose for the end zone, 12tds 6run 6rec, good speed for size
6-1, 227 SO (Fla)

Watch Out For:
FS- Taheem Acevado: Makes plays all over the field, overlooked, last game will play big
6-1, 222 SR (Fla)


Team Info:

Passing Off: 286.2yrds/g, 19th in NCAA
-big play receivers
-don’t throw many picks
BIGGEST STRENGTH

Rushing Off: 126.9 yrds/g, 94th in NCAA
-not as bad as their rank, but not good or even average
-Pierre is a good back
-Rose is underused

Passing Def: 237.6 yrds/g 75th in NCAA
-lots of athletes that force turnovers
-allow big plays, make big plays
KEY TO GAME

Rushing Def: 179.5 yrds/g 83rd in NCAA
-once again, have talent just don’t perform
-no real stopper besides Jackson
BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Special Teams:
Kicking: B (46 long, 6+ 40)
Punting: A-
Return Game: D

Key Stats:
3rd Down Conversion- 75/192 (39%) vs. 79/177 (42%)
Penalties- 79 for 644yrds (53.7per) vs. 92 for 765yrds (63.8per)
Turnovers- 14 vs. 33 (+19)
TOP- 30:20 vs. 29:40

Head Coach: Howard Schnellenberger, 7th season- 40-32, 4-0 Bowls (w/Lville)
-built Louisville into legit program in 80’s
-Off Coordinator in NFL for 16yrs, 2 Super Bowls
-mentored by Don Shula and Bear Bryant
-fastest team to win conference, only joined 1A in 05’

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Poinsettia Bowl Review

Well, I didn't nail it exactly, but I'll take it. Navy more than stayed in the game for the most part, and they did it for longer than I expected. Never underestimate the power of the triple option. Utah was faster, stronger and more skilled than the Midshipmen, and it didn't show until about 9 minutes into the 3rd quarter (I thought Utah would have had the slight edge at this point) when they finally discovered what they should have done all game, PASS. Short little dink and dunks mixed with a stop and go TD to Derek Richards looked to put the game out of the Midshipman's reach. But the academy kept to what they do best, and ran the hell out of the ball.

My players to watch out for were Eric Kettani on the Navy side of the ball, who made me look smart as he was the Midshipman's best offensive player on the night. 125 yards on only 12 carries and 2 monster runs where Kettani displayed his 4.5 speed and 400 pound bench press including a 43 yard TD run to start the 2nd half.

I pegged freshman Jerome Brooks on Utah to have a nice game as well, he scored the Utes 2nd td on a 25 yard reverse, showcasing the speed and athleticism that made him a 3 time MVP of his high school.

I thought that Derek Richards would put together a nice final game and earn the MVP honors, and while he didn't quite have the ballgame I anticipated (I thought 110, td, a couple good returns and maybe a reverse) he ended up with 4 grabs for 61 yards and a 40 yard touchdown.

Now as far the spread (Utes were laying 8) is concerned, that was about as close to heartbreak as I've ever suffered. It seemed all but hopeless until the Utes offense started clicking and when they finally took 28-17 lead at the start of the 4th quarter. They seemed to have finally got the option figured out as Utah defenders started sticking to their assignments and making plays. But Navy marched down the field, thanks to a long run by Kettani, and capped off the drive with a Shun White 10 yard TD catch and 2 pt conversion.

No big deal, Utah seemed to be on a roll and had 9 minutes left to drive the field, take 7 and change off the clock and punch it in again. Thus covering the spread because we all Navy can't pass......right. Its games like this that make me want to take an Ambien, go to sleep early and just read the box score in the morning.

Utah cut up the Navy defense as they had been all throughout the second half, until a 3rd and 4 at the Navy 27 yard line. QB Brian Johnson took the snap, ran to the left looked to have been stopped behind the line of scrimmage, and then miraculously someone hit the circle button on his controller as he spun left and scrambled safley for 7 yards keeping the Utah drive alive. Now fast forward to a 3rd and goal from the Navy four, Brian Johnson throws a quick out to Jerome Brooks, he turns upfield and jumps to stretch towards the pile-on as he flies out of bounds.

Brooks fumbled the ball in mid-air and it hit the pile-on. Touchback right? Not exactly. The refs convened to review the play, and the original call of out of bounds was upheld. So now we get a second chance at convering this spread, all Utah needs to do is punch it in from 2 feet and we got a 10 point lead with 2 and half minutes left. STUFF!!!! Darrell Mack somehow doesn't manage to get into the endzone, AHHHH! Now Navy has first and 10 from their own inch line, saftey does no good. We need a td, so a pick/fumble six or more likely turnover on downs and td is needed. Navy manages to get the all to about the 8 yard line, but are stuffed on a 4th and 2.

Utah ball, 2 and a half minutes, 7 yards to go. Looking good. Feeling even better as Darrell Mack crosses the goal line for his second touchdown, Utah now up 35-25! Spread is covered, and I forgot to mention I took the under too which was 63.5, so everything looks great. Navy now has to go 70 yards in 50 seconds to ruin this spread.

They haven't had a pass over 40 yards ALL SEASON.

Until 1st and 10 from their own 42.

Zerbin Singleton, a 165 pound aspiring astronaut, would forever ruin my night and likeness for Navy football as he finds himself wide open on a crossing route and motors 58 yards for a score (Robert Johnson with THE WORST angle ever by the way, should have had the tackle at the 20 yard line).

Spread, GONE. Under GONE. Thank you Zerbin, thank you for nothing.

Now the only way we can come back and win this is with a recovered onside kick and pick/fumble for six. Zerbin gives me a reason to hope as he jumps up and somehow out muscles the defender for the onsides kick. But Navy would throw a pick soon after, although it wasn't returned for any yards let alone six points. Game Over. Soooooooooooooooooooooooo close!

MY GRADE:

Prediction- Navy 16, Utah 34 Actual- Navy 32, Utah 35: B

Players to Watch- Eric Kettani, 12 carries 124yards td, 1rec -4yards: A+
- Jerome Brooks, 2carries 25yards td, 3rec 14yards: B

MVP- Derek Richards- 4rec, 61 yards td, 1punt ret 4yrds: B-


Overall Grade: B

2007 Poinsettia Bowl

2007 Poinsettia Bowl

Navy Midshipmen vs. Utah Utes
8-4 8-4

@Temple, W 30-19 @Oregon St, L 7-34
@#15 Rutgers, L 24-41 Air Force, L 12-20
Ball State, L 31-34 UCLA, W 44-6
Duke, W 46-43 @UNLV, L 0-27
Air Force, W 31-20 Utah State, W 34-18
@Pittsburgh, W 48-45 @Louisville, W 44-35
Wake Forest, L 24-44 San Diego State, W 23-7
Delware, L 52-59 @TCU W, 27-20
@Notre Dame, W 46-44 @Colorado State, W 27-3
@North Texas, W 73-62 Wyoming, W 50-0
Northern Illinois, W 35-24 New Mexico, W 28-10
Army, W 38-3 @ BYU L 10-17


Navy Rushing vs. Utah Rush Def: 3
Adv- Navy
Utah Rushing vs. Navy Rush Def: 3
Adv- Utah

Navy Passing vs. Utah Pass Def: 4
Adv- Utah
Utah Passing vs. Navy Pass Def: 4
Adv- Utah

Utah Special Teams: 4
Navy Special Teams: 2

3rd Down Conv- Navy, 3
Penalties- Navy, 3
Turnovers- Utah, 4
TOP- Utah, 1

Coaching- Utah, 4
Intangibles- Navy, 2

Size- Utah, 3
Speed- Utah, 2

TOTALS:
Utah- 29
Navy- 13