This is NOT an NCAA Marness Madness First Round Game

2007 R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl ( $325,000 payout)

Florida Atlantic Owls 7-5 vs. Memphis Tigers 7-5



This matchup reads more like a 2 seed vs. a 15 in the opening round of an NCAA tournament, and the ball may be in the air for just as long, as both teams throw for right around 300 yards a game and play no defense at all. It's Florida Atlantic's first bowl game ever and Memphis' 3rd under coach Tommy West. West is 2-1 in bowls, including a win in the New Orleans bowl in 2005 over North Texas. Neither of that seems to matter too much as the Owls are laying 3 points currently with the moneyline sitting at -160 for the Owls and +140 for the Tigers.

Memphis' wide recievers look like they should be contending for the Final Four instead of a bowl game as Doug Calhoun, Carlos Singleton and Maurice Jones stand at 6-4, 6-8 and 6-4 respectivley. Senior Martin Hankins has been on fire latley, averaging 330yrds+ a game for last month and a half of the regular season. This could force Florida Atlantic defensive backs to make on the reciever rather that the ball when its in the air, especially late in the game when they'll be exhautsted from running backwards for 25+ yards every play for 45 minutes. Pass inteference penalites have the potential to KILL the owls in this one.

These teams are mirrors of themselves, maybe no other bowl game features two teams that are so much alike. In games like this it often comes down to coaching and prepartaion. Florida Atlantic is coached by the legendary and former National Coach of the Year Howard Schnellenbeger, who was also a part of 2 Super Bowl coaching staffs witht the Miami Dolphins in the 70's. Sophomore QB Rusty Smith was Sun Belt Player of the Year, as prestigious an award as any QB named Rusty has ever earned. Wideout Cortez Gent and tight end Jason Harmon are his top targets, both makin 1st all Sun Belt teams as well, Gent averaging a whopping 16.9 yards a a grab.

Leading up to this game all I keep hearing is that the x-factor will be that Florida Atlantic's +19 turnover magin (tied for the nation's best) will force Memphis into bad decsions and give Florida Atlantic the short field they need to win. But the thing is, despite all the turnovers, the Owls are ranked 75th in the nation in passing def (237 yards a game) and 83rd against the run (179.5 yards a game). So what does that mean?

It means that there defense is awful. They rely on the big play, and often get it, but when they don't the other team is making 20+ yard gains on multiple plays every drive. Memphis is in a similar boat, but not as bad. They sport an impressive +9 turnover margin and are 76th in the nation against the forward pass and 64th against the run. Numbers are a little better, but similar to Florida Atlantic's.

I mean, I really have no clue about this game. If it comes down to caoching and motivation, the Owls have the huge edge as Schellenberger is 4-0 in bowls and been through it all, where as Tommy West seems to be the Conference USA version of Mack Brown. Great recruiter who's fans love him in Februrary and are at the door with pitchforks by mid-November.

Neither team has had real impressive victories, Florida Atlantic has played a tougher schedule with a beat downs at Florida and Kentucky and a close loss at home to South Florida. Memphis beat.......uhhh Tulane, oh but Matt Forte did only run for 278 yards in the game.

Memphis has been worse at stopping the run (Forte's 278 yard effort was follower up by a 300 yard 4 td effort from ECU's Chris Johnson) and thats the only real reason I can't throw them under the bus for this game. Their secondry seems to overachieve and I wouldn't be surprised if they forced the overly excited Owls into a few turnovers. Memphis is 0-2 versus the Sun Belt this year, but Confernce USA has taken 3 of the last 4 New Orleans bowls. Meaningless statictics once again consuming my brain.

As far as surprise impact players to watch out for, on the Florida Atlantic side look out for free saftey Taheem Acevado. He's tied for second on the team with 5ints, and hits. This is his last game and first bowl. He'll be excited to prove to all those other Florida schools that "see I could've played in the ACC or SEC, I picked off Martin FREAKING Hankins!" I look for him to have 7-8 tackles, and a pick or fumble recovery.

Memphis' front-court of recievers should be able to make plays on a Florida Atlantic secondary most of the game, Acevado is the only one over 5-10. But look for the 3rd reciever to have a surprising impact, Maurice Jones. Not realted to the Jaguars runner, this MJ is 6-4, with speed and hands and has gotten hot towards the latter part of the season. Should be good for about 4 catches, 110 yards and a long TD as he will be up against safties and nickel backs most of the game.

In the end, my gut tells me this:
-Florida Atlantic gets out to a 17/14-3 lead early.
-Memphis makes a few big plays, forces a with less than 5 minutes left in the half, scores again and takes a 21-17, 20-14 lead into half time
-Florida Atlantic all of sudden can't make any plays in the 3rd quarter, Memphis capitalizes with a few scores, now we got a 35-17, 31-14 route
-BUT, i forget the mention that MEMPHIS HAS AWFUL SPECIAL TEAMS
-they either give the Owls great field position or get a punt/fg blocked, muff a punt return or just miss an easy field goal, giving the Owls momentum. (Bad special teams ALWAYS catches up to you in the end)
-The Owls come hooting back in the 4th quarter and tie the game on a FG with about 2min left, 35-35 or 31-31
-now this is where my fortune telling skills get hazy.
.......I see Memphis driving
.......Hankins throws a bomb to Singleton form the goal line to the 20 yard line....
.......and.............td?.......pick?.......pass interferene?.........

who knows

My football brain says a questionable P.I penatly that will give Memphis the game. But my heart says that Florida Atlantic will somehow make a big play and win the game in the end. It will be close and that 3 point spread is hard to pick with was well. In the end, I just can't pick against the Owls.

First bowl game, legendary coach, should be enough. But size, speed and athleticsim was supposed to be enough for Navy to get blown out by Utah.

Florida Atlantic, 42
Memphis, 38

MVP: I'll go with TE Jason Harmon. He's had a nice season, and I think Rusty Smith comes out a bit....well, rusty...and turns the ball over a few times. Harmon is a matchup nightmare for a team like the Tigers and should give their 2nd tier cover guys problems across the middle all day. Don't be shocked if Harmon ends up with 11 catches, 145 yards and a couple of scores.