Friday, December 21, 2007

Colin Kaepernick, Write it Down

2007 New Mexico Bowl ($750,000 payout)

Nevada Wolfpack 6-6 vs. New Mexico Lobos 8-4


Quick, one of these teams is in the Mountain West and one is in the WAC. Which one is which? You have no idea at all do you? I didn't either until I started researching this game. The answer is Nevada in the WAC, New Mexico in Mountain West. Aren't there more mountains Nevada? But I guess Reno is further west than Albuquerque so...........whatever. They might as well just combine both conferences, it really doesn't matter.

There's a football game going on here too. And it features my favorite college quarterback in the country you've never heard of, WAC (or is it Mountain West...) freshman of the year Nevada's Colin Kaepernick (that's pronounced Kay-per-nick so you can jump on the bandwagon with me before your boys do).

He's the WAC (not whack) version of Vince Young. He's 6-6, mobile and might even have a stronger arm than Vince. He's not better than Vince, just an incredibly talented freshman who stepped in for starter Nick Granziano when he got knocked out for the year with a foot injury.

If you watch ESPN2 you might remember Kaepernick from his first start against Boise State, where I first developed my man crush on him. Nevada was completely over matched, had no business being in that game and all Kaepernick did was run for 177 yards and 2 scores on a mere 14 carries and added another 243 and 2 scores passing. Nevada lost 67-69 in 4 overtimes.

Kaepernick will be the key to this home game for New Mexico, a team that is the opposite of the Wolfpack. New Mexico is above average on defense and below average on offense. They don't do anything great, they don't do anything terribly. Nevada is an above average offensive team (11th in rushing, but not in the traditonal up the gut in your face style, alot of it is Kaepernick on broken pass plays) and below average on defense. They don't do anything terrible and they don't do anyting great.

So if we look at this like a division problem, all factors would cancel each other out, and we need to look towards the next questions. Special teams, key situations, size/speed, coaching and intangibles. New Mexico has some of the best special teams in the nation and are basically playing a home game, but that could be negated by Kaepernick's legs on 3rd downs and the overall inconsistency of the Lobos. That inconsistency is a reflection of coach Rocky Long who did I mention has never won a bowl game (0-5).

UNDER THE RADAR:

Nevada WR Mike McCoy is the 3rd (or sometimes 4th) option in the Wolfpack attack, but should be open deep at least once. He's got nice speed and seems to find ways to get open. Think WAC (maybe whack as well) version of a Tim Dwight and Wes Welker lovechild. Pencil him in for 3or4 catches 85 yards and a key score in the 4th quarter.

New Mexico QB Donovan Porterie has been an effective come from behind signal caller himself. He's quietly amassed 2652 yards and 13 scores to 8 ints. Look for him to have a better game potentially than his star running back Rodney Ferguson (1177 yards and 13 scores) as Nevada should be prepared to scheme against Ferguson. The Lobos have great pass protection too, so pencil Porterie in for around 300 yards and 2 scores.

PREDICTION:

Nevada 37, New Mexico 34

MVP:

How can i go against my boy? I can't, this will be a breakout game for Colin Kaepernick as he shuts up the home crowd in a late thriller. Think 250 through the air with 2 tds (he tends to throw a around 50% completions with lots of deep balls so don't be surprised if you see 16-34) and another buck thirty five (that's 135 yards) and a score or two on the ground. KAP! KAP! KAP!

No comments: