For the Season and what a god awful season it's been
Straight Up: 14-12
Against the Spread: 8-17-1
Over/Under: 13-13
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Monday, December 31, 2007
Bowl Game Picks, New Years Day
I AM BETTING OPPOSITE OF WHATEVER I THINK IS RIGHT BCUZ I AM ALWAYS WRONG NO MATTER HOW HARD I TRY
Cotton Bowl:
Missouri, 45 Arkansas, 38
Arkansas +4, 68 O/U
Capital One Bowl:
Michigan, 27 Florida, 30
Michigan +11, 60 O/U
Gator Bowl:
Texas Tech, 44 Virgina, 39
Virginia +6, 59 O/U
Rose Bowl:
Illinois, 31 USC, 42
Illinois +14, O/U 50
Sugar Bowl:
Hawaii, 37 Georgia, 35
Hawaii +8, O/U 69
Cotton Bowl:
Missouri, 45 Arkansas, 38
Arkansas +4, 68 O/U
Capital One Bowl:
Michigan, 27 Florida, 30
Michigan +11, 60 O/U
Gator Bowl:
Texas Tech, 44 Virgina, 39
Virginia +6, 59 O/U
Rose Bowl:
Illinois, 31 USC, 42
Illinois +14, O/U 50
Sugar Bowl:
Hawaii, 37 Georgia, 35
Hawaii +8, O/U 69
Sunday, December 30, 2007
2007 Outback Bowl
2007 Outback Bowl ($3.1 million payout)
#16 Tennessee, 9-4 vs. #18 Wisconson, 9-3
Tennessee seems primed for a big time collapse. Phil Fulmer is now reduced to 5th best coach in the SEC with the hiring of Bobby Petrino to the Razorbacks (Spurrier, Saban, Miles and Petrino). Their offensive coordinator, David Cutcliffe, just agreed to take the worst job in NCAA athletics as the Duke head coach (which had an online application for the position on their web site, seriously). Their recivers coach is interviewing for the offensive coordinator job at Baylor (because Robert Meachum, Kelly Washington and Stallworth have been so great in the NFL and they couldn't land Patrick Turner) and two of their assistants could move to college football's land of no return at Duke.
Wisconson plays great in bowl games, 9-3 since the Alvarez days, and usually plays great against SEC opponents. This is a typical Phil Fulmer team as of late. He recruits great talent, but they always seem to underachieve, especailly on the defensive side of the ball. They have great speed and athleticsim at the linebacker positions, but have given up an average of almost 160 on the ground a contest. They're defensive backs always seem to play their best before they become upper classmen (Jon Hefney) hopefully Eric Berry doesn't follow suit.
I think Wisconson gets an early lead, Tennesee mounts a comeback. But to avail as the Badgers put it away late.
Prediction:
#16 Tennessee, 27 # 18 Wisconson, 38
Wisconson +2, O/U 58.5
#16 Tennessee, 9-4 vs. #18 Wisconson, 9-3
Tennessee seems primed for a big time collapse. Phil Fulmer is now reduced to 5th best coach in the SEC with the hiring of Bobby Petrino to the Razorbacks (Spurrier, Saban, Miles and Petrino). Their offensive coordinator, David Cutcliffe, just agreed to take the worst job in NCAA athletics as the Duke head coach (which had an online application for the position on their web site, seriously). Their recivers coach is interviewing for the offensive coordinator job at Baylor (because Robert Meachum, Kelly Washington and Stallworth have been so great in the NFL and they couldn't land Patrick Turner) and two of their assistants could move to college football's land of no return at Duke.
Wisconson plays great in bowl games, 9-3 since the Alvarez days, and usually plays great against SEC opponents. This is a typical Phil Fulmer team as of late. He recruits great talent, but they always seem to underachieve, especailly on the defensive side of the ball. They have great speed and athleticsim at the linebacker positions, but have given up an average of almost 160 on the ground a contest. They're defensive backs always seem to play their best before they become upper classmen (Jon Hefney) hopefully Eric Berry doesn't follow suit.
I think Wisconson gets an early lead, Tennesee mounts a comeback. But to avail as the Badgers put it away late.
Prediction:
#16 Tennessee, 27 # 18 Wisconson, 38
Wisconson +2, O/U 58.5
2007 Chick Fil-A Bowl
2007 Chick Fil-A Bowl ($3.25million payout for Auburn, $2.4million for Clemson)
#15 Clemson, 9-3 vs. #22 Auburn, 8-4
Gotta love it when two teams with the same nickname matchup against each other. Who will be more Tiger?
Auburn did a solid job of sealing up Felix Jones and McFadden, it should have similar sucess facing C.J. Spiller and James Davis. I think this will be as close as Auburn's offense can make it. Brandon Cox has played alot better down the stretch, should have a decent game.
Prediction:
Auburn, 23 Clemson, 21
Auburn +2.5, O/U 46
#15 Clemson, 9-3 vs. #22 Auburn, 8-4
Gotta love it when two teams with the same nickname matchup against each other. Who will be more Tiger?
Auburn did a solid job of sealing up Felix Jones and McFadden, it should have similar sucess facing C.J. Spiller and James Davis. I think this will be as close as Auburn's offense can make it. Brandon Cox has played alot better down the stretch, should have a decent game.
Prediction:
Auburn, 23 Clemson, 21
Auburn +2.5, O/U 46
2007 Insight Bowl
2007 Insight Bowl ($1.2 million payout)
Oklahoma State, 6-6 vs. Indiana, 7-5
Indiana is the feel good story of the season. Coach Terry Hoeppner died of cancer before the start of the season, and the team carried his memory all the way to a last second bowl clenching game winning field goal against rival Purdue.
Kellen Lewis makes plays in the passing game, mostly to my favorite wide receiver in college football this year, 6-7 James Hardy. Although players always seem to shrink by a inch or so once they get drafted, so he's probably more like 6-6. But he's quick, runs great routes and catches everything with his hands. Doesn't let anything hit him in the pads and I've never seen drop a pass. A big game here could propel him into a first round pick.
Oklahoma State has been a sieve on defense this year, and a powerhouse on offense. Dontrell Savage and Adarius Bowman should shake loose for big games a few times, but the defense will have to step at they've been pitiful away from home, only wins against Baylor and Nebraska. The Cowboys are also 0-2 versus the Big-10 in bowl games.
Plus, the feel good stories always win this time of year.
Prediction:
Indiana, 44 Oklahoma State, 41
Oklahoma State, 6-6 vs. Indiana, 7-5
Indiana is the feel good story of the season. Coach Terry Hoeppner died of cancer before the start of the season, and the team carried his memory all the way to a last second bowl clenching game winning field goal against rival Purdue.
Kellen Lewis makes plays in the passing game, mostly to my favorite wide receiver in college football this year, 6-7 James Hardy. Although players always seem to shrink by a inch or so once they get drafted, so he's probably more like 6-6. But he's quick, runs great routes and catches everything with his hands. Doesn't let anything hit him in the pads and I've never seen drop a pass. A big game here could propel him into a first round pick.
Oklahoma State has been a sieve on defense this year, and a powerhouse on offense. Dontrell Savage and Adarius Bowman should shake loose for big games a few times, but the defense will have to step at they've been pitiful away from home, only wins against Baylor and Nebraska. The Cowboys are also 0-2 versus the Big-10 in bowl games.
Plus, the feel good stories always win this time of year.
Prediction:
Indiana, 44 Oklahoma State, 41
2007 Music City Bowl
2007 Music City Bowl ($1.6 million payout)
Florida State, 7-5 vs. Kentucky, 7-5
Everyone is making a huge deal about these 20 or suspensions that Florida State will have to deal with in this game. Look, it definatley hurts them, but doesn't cripple them. Their biggest lose was CB Patrick Robinson, he is a shutdown corner they could ill afford to be without. But as sad as this sounds, Drew Weatherford is a better QB than Xavier Lee (who won't play) and they still have playmakers like Geno Hayes and Andre Flullen on the defensive side.
Keenan Burton won't play for the Wildcats. He was their all everything reciever, but might not be missed as much as some think. Dicky Lyons Jr compares himself to Wes Welker and backs that claim up. Steve Johnson (Kentucky WR) has developed into one of the best deep threats in the SEC and TE Jacob Hamme has come on strong in the last few games and will improve his draft stock in this one.
Seminoles have been dominant against lesser competition, but have at least kept up with their more skilled opponents. Preston Parker should get the ball every way the Noles can draw it up, and it might be closer than most think. Kentucky's shaky defense may yeild some big plays if Weatherford is given time to find 6-6 WR Greg Carr down the field.
Prediction:
Kentucky, 33 Florida State, 28
Florida State +9, O/U 58
Florida State, 7-5 vs. Kentucky, 7-5
Everyone is making a huge deal about these 20 or suspensions that Florida State will have to deal with in this game. Look, it definatley hurts them, but doesn't cripple them. Their biggest lose was CB Patrick Robinson, he is a shutdown corner they could ill afford to be without. But as sad as this sounds, Drew Weatherford is a better QB than Xavier Lee (who won't play) and they still have playmakers like Geno Hayes and Andre Flullen on the defensive side.
Keenan Burton won't play for the Wildcats. He was their all everything reciever, but might not be missed as much as some think. Dicky Lyons Jr compares himself to Wes Welker and backs that claim up. Steve Johnson (Kentucky WR) has developed into one of the best deep threats in the SEC and TE Jacob Hamme has come on strong in the last few games and will improve his draft stock in this one.
Seminoles have been dominant against lesser competition, but have at least kept up with their more skilled opponents. Preston Parker should get the ball every way the Noles can draw it up, and it might be closer than most think. Kentucky's shaky defense may yeild some big plays if Weatherford is given time to find 6-6 WR Greg Carr down the field.
Prediction:
Kentucky, 33 Florida State, 28
Florida State +9, O/U 58
2007 Humanitarian Bowl
2007 Humanitarian Bowl ($750,000 payout)
Fresno State, 8-4 vs. Georgia Tech, 7-5
It will be interesting to see how Tech responds to defensive coordinator John Tenuata as interim coach for this game before offensive guru Paul Johnson takes over for next season. I always think that defensive coordinators do an excellent job as interim coaches. Sometimes they can outperform their predecessors, Jim Bates with the Miami Dolphins several years ago comes to mind. Coordinators are underrated and we've already seen DeWayne Walker prove that he was capable of making an UCLA team that underachieved all season, get together for one final go round.
The Fresno State rushing defense will be put to the test often by a Tashard Choice, who's primed to have a monster game. He's gained 1300+ yards and will lead the ACC in rushing for the second straight season despite missing a game and playing through multiple injuries all season. The Oklahoma transfer should run hard behind a great offensive line and FB Mike Cox, who might be the best lead blocker in college football. I love great throwback fullbacks like Cox.
Fresno State also will be without their two top threats. Running back Ryan Mathews is out with a torn pec and CB/KR A.J. Jefferson who averages an eye popping 34 yards a return, is suspended for violating curfew.
Fresno State should travel better, but Georgia Tech is arguably the most talented team in the ACC. They lost to Georgia for the 7th straight season, 6th under Gailey in their last contest. I think the only thing that keeps the Yellowjackets from winning by 10+ points is awful quarterback play. They might have 3 different QBs rotating in, so getting consistent pressure in the backfield early will help the Bulldogs immensely, but they have no true pass rush threat so that might not happen.
Prediction:
Fresno State, 13 Georgia Tech, 31
Fresno State +6, O/U 54
Fresno State, 8-4 vs. Georgia Tech, 7-5
It will be interesting to see how Tech responds to defensive coordinator John Tenuata as interim coach for this game before offensive guru Paul Johnson takes over for next season. I always think that defensive coordinators do an excellent job as interim coaches. Sometimes they can outperform their predecessors, Jim Bates with the Miami Dolphins several years ago comes to mind. Coordinators are underrated and we've already seen DeWayne Walker prove that he was capable of making an UCLA team that underachieved all season, get together for one final go round.
The Fresno State rushing defense will be put to the test often by a Tashard Choice, who's primed to have a monster game. He's gained 1300+ yards and will lead the ACC in rushing for the second straight season despite missing a game and playing through multiple injuries all season. The Oklahoma transfer should run hard behind a great offensive line and FB Mike Cox, who might be the best lead blocker in college football. I love great throwback fullbacks like Cox.
Fresno State also will be without their two top threats. Running back Ryan Mathews is out with a torn pec and CB/KR A.J. Jefferson who averages an eye popping 34 yards a return, is suspended for violating curfew.
Fresno State should travel better, but Georgia Tech is arguably the most talented team in the ACC. They lost to Georgia for the 7th straight season, 6th under Gailey in their last contest. I think the only thing that keeps the Yellowjackets from winning by 10+ points is awful quarterback play. They might have 3 different QBs rotating in, so getting consistent pressure in the backfield early will help the Bulldogs immensely, but they have no true pass rush threat so that might not happen.
Prediction:
Fresno State, 13 Georgia Tech, 31
Fresno State +6, O/U 54
Bowl Game Reviews for Saturday, Dec 29th
Meinke Car Care Bowl-
Prediction:
UConn, 23 Wake Forest, 17
Actual Score:
UConn, 10 Wake Forest, 24
Huskies offense never got going averaging only only 3.6 yards per play and totaling 213 yards while the Demon Deacons almost doubled them up with 412 yards of offense. UConn's lone touchdown was in the first quarter on a Larry Taylor punt return. Josh Adams looks a a great back for Wake going forward.
Liberty Bowl-
Prediction:
Central Florida, 20 Miss State, 24
Actual Score:
Central Florida, 3 Miss State, 10
It was one of those games that had 3 or 4 plays on defense or special teams for each side that could've changed the pace of the game. Only, poor quarterback play kept any momentum from ever being built. The Bulldogs had karma on their side with Sly Croom coaching on the 25th anniversary of his mentor's Bear Bryant's last game as a coach, the 1975 Liberty Bow.
Alamo Bowl-
Prediction:
Texas A&M, 20 Penn State, 31
Actual Score:
Texas A&M, 17 Penn State, 24
Evan Royster of all players sealed this game with a long td run late for Joe Pa. I think this was Rodney Kinlaw's coming out party. He looked great at times with some of the best footwork out of any back I've seen so far this season. He might have propelled himself into a first day pick with that performance.
For Bowl Season-
Straight Up: 10-4
Against the Spread: 5-8-1
Over/Under: 8-6
Prediction:
UConn, 23 Wake Forest, 17
Actual Score:
UConn, 10 Wake Forest, 24
Huskies offense never got going averaging only only 3.6 yards per play and totaling 213 yards while the Demon Deacons almost doubled them up with 412 yards of offense. UConn's lone touchdown was in the first quarter on a Larry Taylor punt return. Josh Adams looks a a great back for Wake going forward.
Liberty Bowl-
Prediction:
Central Florida, 20 Miss State, 24
Actual Score:
Central Florida, 3 Miss State, 10
It was one of those games that had 3 or 4 plays on defense or special teams for each side that could've changed the pace of the game. Only, poor quarterback play kept any momentum from ever being built. The Bulldogs had karma on their side with Sly Croom coaching on the 25th anniversary of his mentor's Bear Bryant's last game as a coach, the 1975 Liberty Bow.
Alamo Bowl-
Prediction:
Texas A&M, 20 Penn State, 31
Actual Score:
Texas A&M, 17 Penn State, 24
Evan Royster of all players sealed this game with a long td run late for Joe Pa. I think this was Rodney Kinlaw's coming out party. He looked great at times with some of the best footwork out of any back I've seen so far this season. He might have propelled himself into a first day pick with that performance.
For Bowl Season-
Straight Up: 10-4
Against the Spread: 5-8-1
Over/Under: 8-6
Saturday, December 29, 2007
2007 Sun Bowl
2007 Sun Bowl
Oregon, 8-4 vs. South Florida, 9-3
This marks the first and only time in the history of football that a team is hoping that a Leaf will be healthy enough to play quarterback. Brady Leaf is doubtful for the game and Matt Kempt will probably start.
I don't think Oregon's 5th string QB will be enough. They're in the game because of the Heisman quality performance of Dennis Dixon throughout the season and he's not going to be playing anytime soon.
This would be a nice way for the Bulls to cap off they're miracle season. I think they'll do it, but Oregon's defense is underrated and Mike Belloti is a great game day coach especially when given time to prepare. Oregon should have a short field to play on a few times, Grothe and the offensive can make costly mistakes. I just think that the Bulls have too much offense on the field in the end.
Prediction:
Oregon, 20 South Florida, 27
Oregon +6, O/U 52
Oregon, 8-4 vs. South Florida, 9-3
This marks the first and only time in the history of football that a team is hoping that a Leaf will be healthy enough to play quarterback. Brady Leaf is doubtful for the game and Matt Kempt will probably start.
I don't think Oregon's 5th string QB will be enough. They're in the game because of the Heisman quality performance of Dennis Dixon throughout the season and he's not going to be playing anytime soon.
This would be a nice way for the Bulls to cap off they're miracle season. I think they'll do it, but Oregon's defense is underrated and Mike Belloti is a great game day coach especially when given time to prepare. Oregon should have a short field to play on a few times, Grothe and the offensive can make costly mistakes. I just think that the Bulls have too much offense on the field in the end.
Prediction:
Oregon, 20 South Florida, 27
Oregon +6, O/U 52
2007 Independence Bowl
2007 Independence Bowl ($1.1 million payout)
Alabama, 6-6 vs. Colorado, 6-6 (Colorado +4)
Mike Shula was fired from Alabama in 2006 for going 6-6 and making the Independence bowl. Nick Saban went 6-6, losing their last 4 including to Louisiana-Monroe, and should be thankful that they made it to Shreveport for one of the traditionally worst bowl games of the year. Look for Bobby Petrino to have a similar effect, proabaly worse, next year at Arkansas (that makes Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Les Miles AND Bobby Petrino in the same conference. Phil Fulmer is suddenly a nobody as far as the SEC is concerned).
The Nate Longshore Theory comes into play in this one. John Parker-Wilson and Longshore could switch teams tomarrow and no one would notice. Parker-Wilson is more moblie, but not more effective. He makes bad throws at bad times. Something that is very hard for a quarteback to really fix at any point in their career.
Colorado hasn't traveled well in recent bowl seasons, and finished the season in a slump themselves going 1-4 in their last 5. Their only win coming by way of a 65-51 shootout against Nebraska. They pose no real threat in the passing game, as Cody Hawkins may not be as talented as Parker-Wilson or Longshore but seems to make as many big mistakes late in games.
That might be enough to be the difference in this game. If DJ Hall is able to make big plays downfield than Bama will have the advantage. And considering that Colorado's lockdown CB Terrence Wheatly is coming off a broken toe, he should be able to do just that.
I think this game will be alot higher scoring than most think, even though the Buff's D which got tired late in the season will be refreshed. This one is a coinflip at best, and when in doubt, take the points.
Prediction:
Alabama, 30 Colorado, 31
Alabama, 6-6 vs. Colorado, 6-6 (Colorado +4)
Mike Shula was fired from Alabama in 2006 for going 6-6 and making the Independence bowl. Nick Saban went 6-6, losing their last 4 including to Louisiana-Monroe, and should be thankful that they made it to Shreveport for one of the traditionally worst bowl games of the year. Look for Bobby Petrino to have a similar effect, proabaly worse, next year at Arkansas (that makes Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Les Miles AND Bobby Petrino in the same conference. Phil Fulmer is suddenly a nobody as far as the SEC is concerned).
The Nate Longshore Theory comes into play in this one. John Parker-Wilson and Longshore could switch teams tomarrow and no one would notice. Parker-Wilson is more moblie, but not more effective. He makes bad throws at bad times. Something that is very hard for a quarteback to really fix at any point in their career.
Colorado hasn't traveled well in recent bowl seasons, and finished the season in a slump themselves going 1-4 in their last 5. Their only win coming by way of a 65-51 shootout against Nebraska. They pose no real threat in the passing game, as Cody Hawkins may not be as talented as Parker-Wilson or Longshore but seems to make as many big mistakes late in games.
That might be enough to be the difference in this game. If DJ Hall is able to make big plays downfield than Bama will have the advantage. And considering that Colorado's lockdown CB Terrence Wheatly is coming off a broken toe, he should be able to do just that.
I think this game will be alot higher scoring than most think, even though the Buff's D which got tired late in the season will be refreshed. This one is a coinflip at best, and when in doubt, take the points.
Prediction:
Alabama, 30 Colorado, 31
2007 Armed Forces Bowl
2007 Armed Forces Bowl ($750,000 payout)
California, 6-6 vs. Air Force, 9-3
Cal -4
I'm looking at the skill level of the players on each team. Cal has 10-13 players who will most likely be playing on Sundays by the fall of 2010. Air Force has MAYBE one. And I think that Air Force is going to flat out win this game. And it's not because of heart or courage or any of those "Rudy" esque intangibles.
here's why
- cal gets no push from front 4, Tedford b4 season "we can get to the QB with our front 4"
- turnovers late in games
- middle of the road at everything
- 0-5 ATS in last 5
-Forsett had great year (1403y 13td)
-all on Longshore, only 5 sacks allowed (11ints in final 6 games, cal went 1-5)
-109th in tackles for loss, 5per, not good against option
-DeCoud hits hard
-LBs have great athleticsim and speed and size
-no Tom Schnider, kicking game might struggle
-ball hawk in CB Carson Bird, 6ints 3fum rec
-2nd in rushing to Navy
-less triple option, more zone blocking and scheming, a little more diversified with the pass this year, up 50 attempts
-first year coordinator changed to more blitzing on defense
-26 turnovers, play well in short yardage situations
-9-0 when someone runs for 100+
-26 seniors
Prediction:
Cal, 26 Air Force, 31
California, 6-6 vs. Air Force, 9-3
Cal -4
I'm looking at the skill level of the players on each team. Cal has 10-13 players who will most likely be playing on Sundays by the fall of 2010. Air Force has MAYBE one. And I think that Air Force is going to flat out win this game. And it's not because of heart or courage or any of those "Rudy" esque intangibles.
here's why
- cal gets no push from front 4, Tedford b4 season "we can get to the QB with our front 4"
- turnovers late in games
- middle of the road at everything
- 0-5 ATS in last 5
-Forsett had great year (1403y 13td)
-all on Longshore, only 5 sacks allowed (11ints in final 6 games, cal went 1-5)
-109th in tackles for loss, 5per, not good against option
-DeCoud hits hard
-LBs have great athleticsim and speed and size
-no Tom Schnider, kicking game might struggle
-ball hawk in CB Carson Bird, 6ints 3fum rec
-2nd in rushing to Navy
-less triple option, more zone blocking and scheming, a little more diversified with the pass this year, up 50 attempts
-first year coordinator changed to more blitzing on defense
-26 turnovers, play well in short yardage situations
-9-0 when someone runs for 100+
-26 seniors
Prediction:
Cal, 26 Air Force, 31
2007 Alamo Bowl
2007 Alamo Bowl ($2.25 million payout)
Penn State, 8-4 vs. Texas A&M, 7-5
Prediction:
Penn State, 31 Texas A&M, 20
PennState -5, 52 O/U
Penn State, 8-4 vs. Texas A&M, 7-5
Prediction:
Penn State, 31 Texas A&M, 20
PennState -5, 52 O/U
2007 Meinke Car Care Bowl
2007 Meinke Car Care Bowl ($750,000 payout)
Wake Forest, 8-4 vs. Connecticut, 9-3
Uconn had a share of the Big East Title this year. I think they're overlooked while the Demon Deacons had 10 non-offensive TDs. Deacons will need one of those to win this one.
Prediction-
Wake Forest, 17 Connecticut, 23
WF +3, Over/Under 47
Wake Forest, 8-4 vs. Connecticut, 9-3
Uconn had a share of the Big East Title this year. I think they're overlooked while the Demon Deacons had 10 non-offensive TDs. Deacons will need one of those to win this one.
Prediction-
Wake Forest, 17 Connecticut, 23
WF +3, Over/Under 47
Bowl Game Reviews, Friday, 29th 2007
Champs Sports Bowl-
Prediction:
Michigan State, 27 Boston College, 30
Actual Score:
Michigan State, 21 Boston College, 24
Texas Bowl-
Prediction:
Houston, 30 TCU, 24
Actual Score:
Houston, 13 TCU, 20
Emerald Bowl-
Prediction:
Maryland, 22 Oregon State, 31
Actual Score:
Maryland, 14 Oregon State, 21
For Bowl Season-
Straight Up: 8-3
Against the Spread: 3-7-1
Over/Under: 5-6
Prediction:
Michigan State, 27 Boston College, 30
Actual Score:
Michigan State, 21 Boston College, 24
Texas Bowl-
Prediction:
Houston, 30 TCU, 24
Actual Score:
Houston, 13 TCU, 20
Emerald Bowl-
Prediction:
Maryland, 22 Oregon State, 31
Actual Score:
Maryland, 14 Oregon State, 21
For Bowl Season-
Straight Up: 8-3
Against the Spread: 3-7-1
Over/Under: 5-6
Friday, December 28, 2007
2007 Emerald Bowl
2007 Emerald Bowl ( $750,000 payout for ACC, $850,000 payout for PAC-10 )
Maryland 6-6 vs. Oregon State 8-4
Oregon State has a fast defense, should be enough to handle the Terrapins.
Prediction-
Oregon State, 31 Maryland, 22
Odds:
Maryland +5.5
O/U 47
Maryland 6-6 vs. Oregon State 8-4
Oregon State has a fast defense, should be enough to handle the Terrapins.
Prediction-
Oregon State, 31 Maryland, 22
Odds:
Maryland +5.5
O/U 47
2007 Texas Bowl
2007 Texas Bowl ( $1.25 million payout )
TCU, 7-5 vs. Houston, 8-4
Houstan has the 2 best athletes on the offensive side. TCU end Tommy Blake should have a nice final game, but not enough. TCU hasn't showed up in the 2nd half of alot of big games.
Prediction-
TCU, 24 Houston, 30
ODDS:
Houstan +7
O/U 58
TCU, 7-5 vs. Houston, 8-4
Houstan has the 2 best athletes on the offensive side. TCU end Tommy Blake should have a nice final game, but not enough. TCU hasn't showed up in the 2nd half of alot of big games.
Prediction-
TCU, 24 Houston, 30
ODDS:
Houstan +7
O/U 58
Holiday Bowl Review
Rudy Carpenter looked awful. Dominating performance by the Longhorns. Sundevils only converted 5 first downs to Texas' 8 and turned the ball over 5 times to one as well.
Prediction-
Texas, 38 Arizona State, 44
Actual Score-
Texas, 52 Arizona State, 34
For the Season-
Staight Up: 6-2
Against the Spread: 2-6
Over/Under: 3-5
Prediction-
Texas, 38 Arizona State, 44
Actual Score-
Texas, 52 Arizona State, 34
For the Season-
Staight Up: 6-2
Against the Spread: 2-6
Over/Under: 3-5
Motor City Bowl Review
Both defenses sucked. 28 points to Cental Michigan in the 3rd quarter?
Prediction-
CMU, 27 Purdue, 38
Actual-
CMU, 48 Purdue, 51
For the Season-
Straight Up: 6-1
Against The Spread: 2-5
Over/Under: 2-5
Prediction-
CMU, 27 Purdue, 38
Actual-
CMU, 48 Purdue, 51
For the Season-
Straight Up: 6-1
Against The Spread: 2-5
Over/Under: 2-5
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Sackanomics 101
2007 Champs Sports Bowl ($2.25 million payout)
#14 Boston College 10-2 vs. Michigan State 7-5
BC +6, O/U 59
#14 Boston College 10-2 vs. Michigan State 7-5
BC +6, O/U 59
I never thought I'd ever looked through games and expeceted to see a team so dissapointed that they're not playing in the "Chik Fil' A Bowl. Did they really have to take the "Peach Bowl" part out of it? How many more $3.99chicken sandwiches are you really going to sell? It'a uneccassary. We've now offically crossed the line where now somewhat meaningful bowl games
Michigan State Defensive End Jonal Saint-Dic needed pass 6 whole credits worth of classes this semester. If he didn't, he would be declared academically ineligible for the Champs Sports Bowl. Hudson Valley Community College (the 13th grade for upstate New York high school seniors) transfer Saint Dic took 2 classes, one a sociology course worth 3 credits and another math class that was an ambitious 5 credits.
Here's a question that could've been put on his final: If he only passes one of these courses, and does not end up playing in this bowl game, what course did he pass?
So what if Jonal is not a numbers guy, but here's some that won't help the Spartans on Friday: 10.5 sacks and a Big-10 record 8 forced fumbles in 12 games this season. And alot of those forced fumbles were on strip sacks coming from the blind side. You think that won't have an impact on how effective Matt Ryan is? This gives All ACC OT and future lottery pick Godser Cherlius a huge adavantage, as he's struggled at times this season.
The type of plays that Saint-Dic makes have a huge impact on these type of games. They're momentum plays.
I look for Ryan to have a big day in his last game:
Michigan State, 27 Boston College, 30
Coach February meets the Wanderer
2007 Holiday Bowl ($2.125 million payout)
#19Texas Longhorns 9-3 vs. #12Arizona State Sundevils 10-2
Finally our first bowl contest between two teams that one their best day could legitimately beat anyone in the country. Arizona State currently sits as 2.5 point underdogs with the moneyline coming off at a cool +120 for the Sundevils and -140 for the Longhorns. Over, under is at 62. You'll see lots of players with NFL paychecks in their future when you tune in on Friday, not many superstars but some great athletes that could contribute at the next level. Texas, as always, has one of the most talented and deep teams in the country. Problem is they're stacked with potential at some spots and the positions that lack true talent (corner, strong safety and wide receiver) are what could cost them their 10th victory of the season.
How talented are the Texas Longhorns? They have 17 players ranked by NFLDraftscout.com as the top 10 at their position in their respective draft class. Problem is that talent isn't displaced evenly. 6 of those 17 won't start or likely even see the field in the Holiday Bowl. 3 of those 6 are Offensive Lineman (Freshman OT Tray Allen who'll be a stud by the end of next year, fellow frosh Aundrae McGaskey and sophomore C Chris Hall who is behind senior Dallas Griffin until next season) and 2 of the others are defensive lineman (Junior DT Roy Miller who should be worked in, and RS Freshman DE Eddie Jones) the other is backup full-back freshman Cody Johnson.
So basically the Longhorns are stacked at the line of scrimmage, but lack perimeter stars especially in the secondary. FS Marcus Griffin is awesome, but won't likely be cloned 3 times over before kickoff. I don't think that twenty-something practices and a month's worth of film study will help Texas suddenly figure out how to play effective man to man coverage without giving up too many long gains.
And that is a big problem when facing an Arizona State team that will spread the Texas secondary out with 3-4 receivers all game. Rudy Carpenter (ArzSt QB) surprisingly though, has only tossed for over 300 yards twice this season (Or & OrSt) as Dennis Erickson's squad can run the ball with Keegan Herring, who's been a remarkable story. He's played the entire season this year despite losing his mother, best friend, sister and aunt in a 4 month span.
Texas has been able to get 25 QB sacks this year, but Carpenter has quick delivery, and at least one of their 4 productive receivers (Rudy Burgess, Chris McGaha, Michael Jones and Kyle Williams) should find open separation from the Longhorn secondary. I look forward to seeing how All PAC-10 center (projected 2nd round pick) Mike Pollack handles Frank Okam and Derek Lokey (Texas' beastly defensive tackles). It'll be the toughest task of his career and he should be up for it.
No running back has been hotter than Jammal Charles during the last month of the season as Charles totaled a remarkable 630+ yards over his last 4 games rushing. But Arizona State's run defense is ranked 10th in the country and will be tougher to find yards against than any of his final four opponents. Texas' real advantage will be in exposing the Sundevils lack of speed and athleticism in the secondary, especially with FS Josh Barrett out. Texas' receiving core is actually more talented than Arizona State's, but they're not as consistant and neither is their quarterback. Colt McCoy has thrown 18 picks this years to Carpenter's 9 (Carpenter's only thrown 1 int over the last 4 games).
I think that in the end, this game will come down to intangibles and special teams. Texas has underachieved all season and seemed to lack discipline at crucial times and they could get burned by costly penalties in this one. The Sundevils will be looking at this bowl game as the culmination of they're great season, the programs best season in years. As long as their offensive line is able to keep pressure off Carpenter (school record 51 sacks allowed this season, that's a BIG if) they can stay in the game. Texas has just been awful against the spread this season, especially against teams that can pass. Their only real impressive cover was against TCU who can't throw at all, and that game was closer than the score indicated.
PREDICTIONS:
Under the Radar-
Texas: WR Nate Jones should break loose a few times and expose the Sun Devils lack of secondary speed. Pencil him in for 5 catches, 120 yards and a score.
Arizona State: Rudy Burgess is a converted running back who has a great feel for the game. He has great hands, ball skills, but his real strength is his ability to run after the catch. Carpenter would be smart to give him a few long handoffs, maybe even a screen or two early to get some pressure off his back. Look for 6 grabs, 100 yards and a touchdown. He could make a big play in the return game to change momentum as well.
Prediction-
Texas, 38 Arizona State 44
MVP-
The aforementioned Keegan Herring had been a great story this season. He should be plenty pumped for this one, and as long as Erickson and his staff do a good job of getting some early gains in the pass game to get 8 men out of the box, he should have a great bowl game. Look for an inspired 110 on the ground with a couple of scores, one of them coming late and sealing the game.
#19Texas Longhorns 9-3 vs. #12Arizona State Sundevils 10-2
Finally our first bowl contest between two teams that one their best day could legitimately beat anyone in the country. Arizona State currently sits as 2.5 point underdogs with the moneyline coming off at a cool +120 for the Sundevils and -140 for the Longhorns. Over, under is at 62. You'll see lots of players with NFL paychecks in their future when you tune in on Friday, not many superstars but some great athletes that could contribute at the next level. Texas, as always, has one of the most talented and deep teams in the country. Problem is they're stacked with potential at some spots and the positions that lack true talent (corner, strong safety and wide receiver) are what could cost them their 10th victory of the season.
How talented are the Texas Longhorns? They have 17 players ranked by NFLDraftscout.com as the top 10 at their position in their respective draft class. Problem is that talent isn't displaced evenly. 6 of those 17 won't start or likely even see the field in the Holiday Bowl. 3 of those 6 are Offensive Lineman (Freshman OT Tray Allen who'll be a stud by the end of next year, fellow frosh Aundrae McGaskey and sophomore C Chris Hall who is behind senior Dallas Griffin until next season) and 2 of the others are defensive lineman (Junior DT Roy Miller who should be worked in, and RS Freshman DE Eddie Jones) the other is backup full-back freshman Cody Johnson.
So basically the Longhorns are stacked at the line of scrimmage, but lack perimeter stars especially in the secondary. FS Marcus Griffin is awesome, but won't likely be cloned 3 times over before kickoff. I don't think that twenty-something practices and a month's worth of film study will help Texas suddenly figure out how to play effective man to man coverage without giving up too many long gains.
And that is a big problem when facing an Arizona State team that will spread the Texas secondary out with 3-4 receivers all game. Rudy Carpenter (ArzSt QB) surprisingly though, has only tossed for over 300 yards twice this season (Or & OrSt) as Dennis Erickson's squad can run the ball with Keegan Herring, who's been a remarkable story. He's played the entire season this year despite losing his mother, best friend, sister and aunt in a 4 month span.
Texas has been able to get 25 QB sacks this year, but Carpenter has quick delivery, and at least one of their 4 productive receivers (Rudy Burgess, Chris McGaha, Michael Jones and Kyle Williams) should find open separation from the Longhorn secondary. I look forward to seeing how All PAC-10 center (projected 2nd round pick) Mike Pollack handles Frank Okam and Derek Lokey (Texas' beastly defensive tackles). It'll be the toughest task of his career and he should be up for it.
No running back has been hotter than Jammal Charles during the last month of the season as Charles totaled a remarkable 630+ yards over his last 4 games rushing. But Arizona State's run defense is ranked 10th in the country and will be tougher to find yards against than any of his final four opponents. Texas' real advantage will be in exposing the Sundevils lack of speed and athleticism in the secondary, especially with FS Josh Barrett out. Texas' receiving core is actually more talented than Arizona State's, but they're not as consistant and neither is their quarterback. Colt McCoy has thrown 18 picks this years to Carpenter's 9 (Carpenter's only thrown 1 int over the last 4 games).
I think that in the end, this game will come down to intangibles and special teams. Texas has underachieved all season and seemed to lack discipline at crucial times and they could get burned by costly penalties in this one. The Sundevils will be looking at this bowl game as the culmination of they're great season, the programs best season in years. As long as their offensive line is able to keep pressure off Carpenter (school record 51 sacks allowed this season, that's a BIG if) they can stay in the game. Texas has just been awful against the spread this season, especially against teams that can pass. Their only real impressive cover was against TCU who can't throw at all, and that game was closer than the score indicated.
PREDICTIONS:
Under the Radar-
Texas: WR Nate Jones should break loose a few times and expose the Sun Devils lack of secondary speed. Pencil him in for 5 catches, 120 yards and a score.
Arizona State: Rudy Burgess is a converted running back who has a great feel for the game. He has great hands, ball skills, but his real strength is his ability to run after the catch. Carpenter would be smart to give him a few long handoffs, maybe even a screen or two early to get some pressure off his back. Look for 6 grabs, 100 yards and a touchdown. He could make a big play in the return game to change momentum as well.
Prediction-
Texas, 38 Arizona State 44
MVP-
The aforementioned Keegan Herring had been a great story this season. He should be plenty pumped for this one, and as long as Erickson and his staff do a good job of getting some early gains in the pass game to get 8 men out of the box, he should have a great bowl game. Look for an inspired 110 on the ground with a couple of scores, one of them coming late and sealing the game.
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