Coach February meets the Wanderer

2007 Holiday Bowl ($2.125 million payout)

#19Texas Longhorns 9-3 vs. #12Arizona State Sundevils 10-2


Finally our first bowl contest between two teams that one their best day could legitimately beat anyone in the country. Arizona State currently sits as 2.5 point underdogs with the moneyline coming off at a cool +120 for the Sundevils and -140 for the Longhorns. Over, under is at 62. You'll see lots of players with NFL paychecks in their future when you tune in on Friday, not many superstars but some great athletes that could contribute at the next level. Texas, as always, has one of the most talented and deep teams in the country. Problem is they're stacked with potential at some spots and the positions that lack true talent (corner, strong safety and wide receiver) are what could cost them their 10th victory of the season.

How talented are the Texas Longhorns? They have 17 players ranked by NFLDraftscout.com as the top 10 at their position in their respective draft class. Problem is that talent isn't displaced evenly. 6 of those 17 won't start or likely even see the field in the Holiday Bowl. 3 of those 6 are Offensive Lineman (Freshman OT Tray Allen who'll be a stud by the end of next year, fellow frosh Aundrae McGaskey and sophomore C Chris Hall who is behind senior Dallas Griffin until next season) and 2 of the others are defensive lineman (Junior DT Roy Miller who should be worked in, and RS Freshman DE Eddie Jones) the other is backup full-back freshman Cody Johnson.

So basically the Longhorns are stacked at the line of scrimmage, but lack perimeter stars especially in the secondary. FS Marcus Griffin is awesome, but won't likely be cloned 3 times over before kickoff. I don't think that twenty-something practices and a month's worth of film study will help Texas suddenly figure out how to play effective man to man coverage without giving up too many long gains.

And that is a big problem when facing an Arizona State team that will spread the Texas secondary out with 3-4 receivers all game. Rudy Carpenter (ArzSt QB) surprisingly though, has only tossed for over 300 yards twice this season (Or & OrSt) as Dennis Erickson's squad can run the ball with Keegan Herring, who's been a remarkable story. He's played the entire season this year despite losing his mother, best friend, sister and aunt in a 4 month span.

Texas has been able to get 25 QB sacks this year, but Carpenter has quick delivery, and at least one of their 4 productive receivers (Rudy Burgess, Chris McGaha, Michael Jones and Kyle Williams) should find open separation from the Longhorn secondary. I look forward to seeing how All PAC-10 center (projected 2nd round pick) Mike Pollack handles Frank Okam and Derek Lokey (Texas' beastly defensive tackles). It'll be the toughest task of his career and he should be up for it.

No running back has been hotter than Jammal Charles during the last month of the season as Charles totaled a remarkable 630+ yards over his last 4 games rushing. But Arizona State's run defense is ranked 10th in the country and will be tougher to find yards against than any of his final four opponents. Texas' real advantage will be in exposing the Sundevils lack of speed and athleticism in the secondary, especially with FS Josh Barrett out. Texas' receiving core is actually more talented than Arizona State's, but they're not as consistant and neither is their quarterback. Colt McCoy has thrown 18 picks this years to Carpenter's 9 (Carpenter's only thrown 1 int over the last 4 games).

I think that in the end, this game will come down to intangibles and special teams. Texas has underachieved all season and seemed to lack discipline at crucial times and they could get burned by costly penalties in this one. The Sundevils will be looking at this bowl game as the culmination of they're great season, the programs best season in years. As long as their offensive line is able to keep pressure off Carpenter (school record 51 sacks allowed this season, that's a BIG if) they can stay in the game. Texas has just been awful against the spread this season, especially against teams that can pass. Their only real impressive cover was against TCU who can't throw at all, and that game was closer than the score indicated.

PREDICTIONS:

Under the Radar-
Texas: WR Nate Jones should break loose a few times and expose the Sun Devils lack of secondary speed. Pencil him in for 5 catches, 120 yards and a score.
Arizona State: Rudy Burgess is a converted running back who has a great feel for the game. He has great hands, ball skills, but his real strength is his ability to run after the catch. Carpenter would be smart to give him a few long handoffs, maybe even a screen or two early to get some pressure off his back. Look for 6 grabs, 100 yards and a touchdown. He could make a big play in the return game to change momentum as well.

Prediction-
Texas, 38 Arizona State 44

MVP-
The aforementioned Keegan Herring had been a great story this season. He should be plenty pumped for this one, and as long as Erickson and his staff do a good job of getting some early gains in the pass game to get 8 men out of the box, he should have a great bowl game. Look for an inspired 110 on the ground with a couple of scores, one of them coming late and sealing the game.