Detroit in Late December......Thanks?

2007 Motor City Bowl ($750,000 payout)



Cental Michigan 8-5 vs. Purdue 7-5


Purdue head coach Joe Tiller said that coming into this game his team is not practicing as much (only 20 versus the bowl standard 20 practices) to keep them fresh. Huh? Facing one of the top 10 best dual threat quarterbacks in the country in Dan LeFevour you would figure it would be to your teams benefit to get as many looks against him as possible in preparation. Tiller may be looking at this like, "well most of my key players are seniors and juniors, so they've been through some wars and are have been battle tested. Might as well rest up". Problem being the players might be looking at it like, "coach thinks we're too much for Central Mich, especially the second time around." Whether or not this hypothetical mixed message is being absorbed by the Tiller's squad might not be as important s the fact that their defense is not getting as many reps against a top flight running QB as possible. That's my concern.


Whomever is going to accept the ESPY for 'Most Unusual Rematch of the Year Award' next February is going to be the winning quarterback of Wednesday's contest. The spread is currently 8 points and the moneyline sits at -360 for the Boilermakers and +300 for the Chips (71 over/under yikes!). If I had someone that would actually take the moneyline on a game like this I wouldn't mind putting 50 bucks or so on it, nice $150 payout, could happen. But if I have to bet the spread heavy, it's hard to look past the Boilermakers athletic ability, but how bad is the aging Joe Tiller really?


That's how I feel about this one. We've already seen underdogs with less athleticism outplay their more talented opponents this bowl season, not to win but to do enough to make Vegas happy (Navy/Utah, SoMiss/Cincy) and I think that this COULD be another one of those situations, but Central Michigan's defense is dreadful, worse than Navy's.

They're ranked 106th in the nation this season and actually increased their ranking in the final 2 weeks when they HELD both perennial powerhouses Akron and Miami (Ohio) to 317 yards a game. The only way Central Michigan wins this game is by getting a +3 or better turnover margin or better. It could happen, Curtis Painter (Purdue QB) only has 9 picks but have lost an embarrassing 12 fumbles during their streaky season . The Chippewas have been outscored 167-43 vs BCS teams this season, including a 70-14 drubbing by Clemson.


Joe Tiller goes under heavy criticism about this time every year. He's lost 3 straight bowl games, 2002 was Tiller's only postseason win of the 21st century. At 65, Tiller's not getting any younger so this may be a case of an aging head coach on his final legs. Although he recruits well, and always seems to be producing NFL talent especially on the defensive side of the ball.



Anyone really know about Anthony Spencer before the Cowboys traded up with division rival Philly to get him in April? He's not having much impact as a rookie, but is an outstanding physical specimen with great upside and should easily supplant Greg Ellis in a few years once he decides to hang it up. Anyway, the point is that Tiller continually seems to churn out these 3-4 linebackers or rush ends that are athletic enough to at least get a legit shot at the NFL.

Here are some names: Roosevelt Colvin, Shaun Phillips, Akin Aydoele, Ray Edwards, Chike Okeafor, Landon Johnson, Niko Koutavides, and the aforementioned Spencer. (Don't forget Brees, Matt Light and Kyle Orton on the other side)

Purdue has actually 3 of these potential future slightly above average (with exceptions to Phillips) such players. Senior DE Shaun Avril had been solid enough to earn 2nd All Big-10 and should be a third round pick in 08', but at end in a 3-4, he's only weighs in at 250 max. Senior Stanford Keglar should be good enough to merit a late 2nd day pick. Junior, and former running back, Anthony Heygood could potentially come up this year and be a late 2nd early 3rd round pick because of his athletic ability and his playmaking ability.

But will Purdue's decade long tradition of mediocrity be enough to prevent them from blowing out the Chippewas? Purdue by the way is only has only 2 wins versus 1-A teams who finished with a winning record since 2004. And one of those teams was Central Michigan earlier this year (the other agaisnt a #20 Ohio State team in 2004). They've won 19 games against losing teams and lost 20 against teams with winning records in that span as well. Can the odds hold up to the spread?

UNDER THE RADAR-
Central Michigan: DE Frank Zombo has a team leading 7.5 sacks this year and will be called upon to wreak havoc in the backfield early on to, and a big factor if Painter hurries his reads/throws or not.
Purdue: WR Greg Orton is not related to Kyle, and better yet he has great hands. He is 6-4 and a great possession receiver and should step up and have a big game with the defense keyed up on WR Dorien Bryant and TE Dustin Keller and WR Selwyn Lymon kicked off the team after a drunk driving arrest. Look for 7 grabs, 70-80 yards and a score.

PREDCITION-
Central Michigan, 27 Purdue, 38 (under 71, Purdue covering -8pts)

MVP-
Curtis Painter has a big game as Central Michigan is unable to get a significant pass rush on him. The game is close, but Painter's receivers get open enough late in the game for him to make throws that put the game out of reach late. But don't be surprised if the final score is closer. Regardless of the outcome Painter should be good for 330 yards 4tds despite a pick in the first half.