Utah All Day

2007 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl ($750,000 payout)

8-4 Utah Utes vs. 8-4 Navy Midshipmen


Now that the Polin Weed-Eater Indepence Bowl is gone forever, the Poinsettia Bowl is now the most laughable of all the bowl titles, but there are a few reasons to tune in. This is the first meeting between these 2 programs, and both teams should play hard enough to give us an entertaing game of college pigskin, at least for 2 1/2 quarters.
Navy is currently 8 point dogs, with the moneyline sittning at a lofty -270 for Utah and +235 for the Midshipmen. So basically no one thinks that Navy has a shot, and it's easy to see why. The best coach they've had in the past 20 years just jumped ship to Georgia Tech (offensive guru Paul Johnson) and although he's been replaced by a Navy guy (and first Polyonesian coach in NCAA history, Ken Niumataolo, congrats to Navy AD Chet Gladchuk on the hire) with expierience running an option attack (Coach Ken ran the option at Hawaii in the mid 80's) its hard to see the team ralling around him to the point where they can overcome a talented and underrated Utah defense.
Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is probably more thankful that the title of the bowl game he's playing in is more of a tounge twister than his own (can you imagine the look on the face of the trophy engraver if he wins the MVP, the troops will be home before that thing is finished), than he is at the prospect of going up against a Utah defense that just hates letting opponents even think about scoring on them (2nd in the nation in scorind Def). Utah has 2 great pass rushing ends, although there oppurtunities will be limited since Navy only averages about 6-9 passing plays a game.
The only problem I can really see Utah running into is that they've never seen a offense like this before, Navy can run with 5 different backs, and as many as 4 of them will be on the field at the same time. Memo to Utah LBs and safties: stay in your lanes and fill your gaps. The only way to stop an rushing offense when you don't know who is going to get the ball is by trusting that the man next to you will do his job and not overpursue on yours. That should not be too much of an issue as this squad is lead by 2 athletic, smart safties (sophomore FS Robert Johnson and senior SS Steve Tate) and big, disclipined linebackers. 2nd team all Mountain West defensive tackle Gabe Long should have a nice farwell game as well, disrupting the undersized Navy offensive line. Former coach Paul Johnson was great at timing the few pass plays that kept Navy close in games this season and its hard to see Coach Ken (I don't feel like spelling that last name every paragraph, sorry) having no learning curve in this aspect.
When Utah has the ball they just have to play it conservative, DON'T TURN THE BALL OVER! No really they can't do that, give Navy a short field and the cannons will be firing off in the end zone all day. Utah QB Brian Johnson had the classic Trent Dilfer scenario where he'll be asked to just not lose the game instead of win it. Navy's defense has been a question mark all season, especially in the passing game, where Utah should finally take advantage of with talented, but underused, wideouts Derek Richards and Brandon Godfrey. The effectiveness of the passing game will ultimately be set up by the running game, led by 1100 yard rusher Darrell Mack and a strong offensive line. Much like a shaky young pitcher needing run support, Johnson will need Mack to eat up some clock and yards early to take some pressure off himself and the passing game. Navy's undersized 3-4 look shouldn't pose too much of a threat to the Utes rushing game, and the Midshipmen have had a diffucult time getting an effective pass rush going all season, this SHOULD help give Johnson time to make the right reads and throw accordingly.
This isn't a sure thing however, as I said before, turnovers can kill Utah in this game. They seem to have had bad turnovers at the worst times this year, and this can't happen against a team that relies heavily on momentum like the Midshipmen. The other thing Navy has to do to have a chance is get even 2 or 3 yards running on 1st and 2nd downs to set up 3rd and 5s or less. Navy is one of the best at converting 3rd downs in the nation at 52%, so not falling into 3rd and long will be a must, as a 3rd and 11 for Navy might as well be 3rd and 34.
In the end I see Utah winning this game, maybe Navy has some success and keeps it close until the second half, but the Utes pull away in the 3rd quarter. This is a Navy team that hasn't really had any great victories (beat Notre Dame and Pitt, but almost lost to Duke earlier in the season) and although they have some momentum (4 straight wins and coming off a route of rival Army), Utah had won 7 in a row before a last second loss to rival BYU in there regular season finale, and the Utes always seem to be prepared for bowl season as they've won 6 straight bowl matchups coming into this game. A sizeable advantage in coaching, kicking game and overall size and speed on defense will win this game for Utah.

Navy, 16
Utah, 34

MVP: WR/KR Derek Richards, Utah: a couple of big returns setting up a short field for Johnson to operate and about 5 catches for 110yards and a score. Maybe even a nicely executed reverse thrown in for good measure.